Why did it fail?

Apart from the obvious possibility that the Orbo did not exist in the first place, this is my best shot at clearing some of the fog around the London demo’s failure. It is nothing more than my best guess:

Sean claims that the device is simple to build. This confidence led him to inject hurdles that added to the risk of failure. These include:

• Using polycarbonate materials to afford transparency
• Fitting simple ceramic watch bearings to keep opaque elements small
• Concentrating on the artful look over function and reliability
• Settling for a low-torque configuration
• Placing the exhibit in a greenhouse with hot lights focused on it
• Using an untested system (ie poly-built – not the configuration itself)
• Seat-of-the-pants flying
• Insufficient time to recover from inevitable problems
• No fall-back plan

I am sure there are others, but it is easy to see that the above list fits with Sean’s ‘mea culpa’. I do not write this to embarrass Sean further. He has fallen on his sword and apportioning blame is Steorn’s business not mine. I am simply trying to bring clarity to a confused situation with what little information we have. One guess is that, since polycarbonate has a high degree of expansivity, it may have done so under the lights and put excessive and unbalanced pressure on the bearings. (I am told by friends that these type of bearings do not take such treatment well). With such a low-torque system, it would not take a large degradation in performance to kill the rotation.

To conclude, as some people have, that the Orbo is real but fragile, is a leap too far for me. I would find it easier to believe that the device did not exist in the first place and I am not ready to jump to that conclusion either.

Up until now, I figured that the delays and obfuscation were down to giving Steorn time to squeeze the last patent improvements into the system. This conforms to the observation that the continuous motion technology is just off the drawing board. On Friday, I asked Sean if they were now fully patent-protected. He was unequivocal in his answer – yes. Taken together with the demo train-wreck and his display of sincerity regarding a change of approach, I can only pray that we will not have to wait a year for the jury to report. That may have made some sort of sense last month, but the landscape has changed and it no longer does.

Steorn, The Undemo

My confidence has been shaken.

Over the past ten months, I have followed and, for the most part, supported Steorn in their adventure. In the full knowledge that their claims are ‘impossible’ I suspended disbelief on the strength of (for me) compelling circumstantial evidence. This stance was temporary as I was confident that, with patience, proper evidence would come our way. The demo was merely a start, but an important one, that would surely confound the sceptics. Instead, it is I, and many other ‘believers’, who have been confounded.

I have not posted for the past few days because I wanted to get to the other side of my disappointment before doing so. So much time, energy, emotion and money has been invested by so many people that it is easy to run away at the mouth (or fingers) and say things you later regret. With time to think and emotions calmed, I’m ready to re-engage and to explore what light, if any, recent events shine on the truth or fiction of the Steorn Story. At times I have convinced myself that Sean has been lying or deluded and at other times that this has all been a hideous and unfortunate mistake by otherwise smart, good people.

I like what Steorn is saying just now. The words are just words, but I will wait to see if they form into actions. I met a number of employees as well as Sean at various times over the past few days in London. They are devastated by what has happened and it is hard to believe that they would have set themselves up for such a fall deliberately. This is what you would have to believe if you conclude that they are operating a scam or hoax (a psychological illness notwithstanding). In making everything transparent (so to speak) they set the highest hurdle to jump. Why not just fake it? It would be running now. Remember, they did not need to do the demo. It was not in the plan. They added that element recently and while the no-show is consistent with them not having what they say, it is also consistent with an embarrassing error. If it turns out to be anything but the latter, I will walk away. If I see real, concrete evidence (to my satisfaction, not someone else’s) then this blog will champion their efforts to change the world.

My confidence has been shaken, I am suspicious, but I have not yet given up hope.

Stressed-Out Steorn

For what it’s worth, here are my thoughts on the current state of Steorn’s demo.

Anyone who has been an engineer, scientist, programmer, technician, or a practitioner of any art that involves prototyping, will understand what these guys are going through right now. It is easy to say now what they should have done to prepare for such an important event but it would be churlish and unproductive to do so.

We may be disappointed but that is nothing to the Steorn crew’s high-profile stress-out. I will wait until something happens that is worth commenting on before I do so. I keep my fingers crossed that that will be tomorrow when I see the working Orbo doing its thing in Kinetica. Until then, I simply wish them luck.