Steorn - Hope

I am outside my tent in a remote part of the Scottish Highlands. Powering my UPC with a solar panel in the pouring rain is not easy, but I thank the scientists and engineers, the business people and financiers who have made such a miracle even possible. My writing desk is anywhere in the world and I'm surrounded by beauty instead of four grey walls.

The weather has been so poor that I've rationed my power and therefore my time on the net. However, catching up with what's going on in the SPDC has, for the first time since the failed demo, put me back in an optimistic frame. I can't, for obvious reasons, say what, but interesting things are happening in there.

With my new pragmatic and sceptical head on, I will not go so far as to jump the fence again although I am tempted to do so. Steorn's silence may frustrate and infuriate some people but they are dancing to their own tune and I like the sound of it.

Perhaps, one day yet, we can all use an Orbo where the sun don't shine and Steorn might - just might - bring the planet what they promised. If that happens, I will regain something I wondered that I might have lost: faith in my ability to judge people, to recognise sincerity and to act on it no matter the odds.

A New Demo?

Well, so far the good words have produced nothing of significance from Steorn. This might mean no more than they are preparing for a ‘reveal’ on their own terms, but it could equally mean that it’s all bollocks. The spectrum goes all the way from a fully working Orbo to the pack of cards tumbling in the background as investors take note of the voices in their heads and start pulling the plug.

Given this, it is quite remarkable that I have any hope left. I do, despite the bizarre antics of this quite bizarre company - Steorn. It is against all common sense. Consequently I have to question myself and wonder at the human condition that refuses to let go of hard-won preconceptions in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.

Small threads of comfort lie in one piece of indirect evidence that there is more to this than the crap it otherwise appears to be. I cling to this and hope that Sean turns out to be more than the charismatic shyster many assume him to be. If he is on the level then he will be laughing at all our words. I hope he is. Are we about to see a new demo? I have no idea.

Steorn - The Never Ending Story

Two weeks on from the un-demo, nothing much has changed. In one way, my belief in Steorn has remained. There are real things going on behind the scenes that continue to fire the flame of hope, there is incredible circumstantial evidence that this is not the delusion of one charismatic individual. However, the passion and time I have put into this project (I have just spent five months writing a first draft of a SF novel that included a successful Steorn in shaping the landscape of my future world) now gives way to a distant objectivity that requires more than confidence in my own ability to judge people.

As a member of the SPDC, I see many clever and passionate people, in Steorn and outside of the company, working hard to change the world in the understanding that we are not being duped. For obvious reasons I cannot talk about details, but perhaps I can use this blog to convey my confidence level from time to time. While I make no promises regarding my gullibility, I can hope at least to reflect my honest assessment of what is going on without the shade of rose-tinted glasses distorting my view.

Until my confidence in my ability to judge others is restored, I will only update this blog occasionally and when I have some reason to shift my position. If I can tell you why I have shifted then I will, otherwise I will simply report the fact.

Rather than checking here regularly, it may be worth your while subscribing to the newsletter so that when I do post on Steorn, you will receive it automatically.

At the moment, confidence is low. It could change so easily and a part of me expects it to do just that. If it does, it will be my head speaking, not my heart.

The Steorn Conspiracy

There is little comfort in having dreams shattered. I still hope that my positive view of Steorn will be rescued from the swamp but, for now, I will take whatever crumbs the current situation offers. Up until now, as a natural sceptic standing on the wrong side of the fence, I had few opportunities to compete in the conspiracy game. This has now changed and I can join in the fun.

Last week in London, as I stood looking around the Kinetica stage, Sean performing to the audience, small personal cameras recording the event, I wondered at the setting. At first glance it looked perfect. Professional cameras connected to the net, all pointing to the shamed, immobile, plastic in the centre. An idle thought struck me: what if they were not filming the ‘device’ but the people lured to the stage by the enigmatic pose it struck? This of course, is silly. It would imply that the failure was staged, that Sean’s mea culpa was an act, and that we were all being manipulated. I thought then of the documentary crew. Apparently they were absent. What? Over three years in the making and the crew programme a vacation in the middle of the demo? As far as I am aware, the cameras were theirs, and I think too, that they filmed ‘the failure’. It is astounding to think that after all this time they would shrug their shoulders, lend Sean the cameras and take a hike – unless the cameras were still filming for the documentary and not for the non-existing demo.

Do I think the above is true? I have no idea. Given that there is nothing booked at Kinetica for the next few weeks, I believe anything is possible in this very strange game we are all playing.

Edit to add: Kinetica is apparently closing down and anyone who is interested can join them for drinks on Sunday afternoon. Mmmm...

McCarthy Mad, Say Mad Scientists

After reading Dr Mike’s interim report, one thing strikes me. In saying that Sean is deluded, he demonstrates a point that most people share upon meeting the man. No, not that Sean is mad, but that Dr Mike is convinced that he is sincere, and that he absolutely believes he has what he says he has. Sir Eric Ash, in his piece for the BBC does the same thing, calling the Steorn CEO genial but suffering from "prolonged self deception."

This is the flipside to the coin seen by many so-called believers who have met him too. Dr Mike and Professor Ash know for a fact that Sean cannot have what he says he has. This is the rock-solid foundation which informs everything they see. However, since they believe him absolutely, the only way they can resolve the dichotomy is to pronounce McCarthy insane. The alternative would be to admit that they were taken in by him and we can't have that. For clear and objective thinkers, I find this conclusion revealing. In pronouncing their diagnosis they also imply that the other people involved are mad or weak in following such a deluded individual without evidence. While this may seem reasonable when tagged to outsiders like me, it is a stretch to do so for Steorn employees, partners and investors. If it turns out to be true that his charm has infected everyone around him with the same self-delusion, then surely the failed demo will force them all to ask serious and hard questions of both themselves and ‘The Master’. Given this, the whole pack will crumble within days and no amount of charm will hold the delusion in place for long.

If that doesn’t happen fast, then sorry guys; you may be clever, but you’ve got it wrong.

Why did it fail?

Apart from the obvious possibility that the Orbo did not exist in the first place, this is my best shot at clearing some of the fog around the London demo’s failure. It is nothing more than my best guess:

Sean claims that the device is simple to build. This confidence led him to inject hurdles that added to the risk of failure. These include:

• Using polycarbonate materials to afford transparency
• Fitting simple ceramic watch bearings to keep opaque elements small
• Concentrating on the artful look over function and reliability
• Settling for a low-torque configuration
• Placing the exhibit in a greenhouse with hot lights focused on it
• Using an untested system (ie poly-built – not the configuration itself)
• Seat-of-the-pants flying
• Insufficient time to recover from inevitable problems
• No fall-back plan

I am sure there are others, but it is easy to see that the above list fits with Sean’s ‘mea culpa’. I do not write this to embarrass Sean further. He has fallen on his sword and apportioning blame is Steorn’s business not mine. I am simply trying to bring clarity to a confused situation with what little information we have. One guess is that, since polycarbonate has a high degree of expansivity, it may have done so under the lights and put excessive and unbalanced pressure on the bearings. (I am told by friends that these type of bearings do not take such treatment well). With such a low-torque system, it would not take a large degradation in performance to kill the rotation.

To conclude, as some people have, that the Orbo is real but fragile, is a leap too far for me. I would find it easier to believe that the device did not exist in the first place and I am not ready to jump to that conclusion either.

Up until now, I figured that the delays and obfuscation were down to giving Steorn time to squeeze the last patent improvements into the system. This conforms to the observation that the continuous motion technology is just off the drawing board. On Friday, I asked Sean if they were now fully patent-protected. He was unequivocal in his answer – yes. Taken together with the demo train-wreck and his display of sincerity regarding a change of approach, I can only pray that we will not have to wait a year for the jury to report. That may have made some sort of sense last month, but the landscape has changed and it no longer does.

Steorn, The Undemo

My confidence has been shaken.

Over the past ten months, I have followed and, for the most part, supported Steorn in their adventure. In the full knowledge that their claims are ‘impossible’ I suspended disbelief on the strength of (for me) compelling circumstantial evidence. This stance was temporary as I was confident that, with patience, proper evidence would come our way. The demo was merely a start, but an important one, that would surely confound the sceptics. Instead, it is I, and many other ‘believers’, who have been confounded.

I have not posted for the past few days because I wanted to get to the other side of my disappointment before doing so. So much time, energy, emotion and money has been invested by so many people that it is easy to run away at the mouth (or fingers) and say things you later regret. With time to think and emotions calmed, I’m ready to re-engage and to explore what light, if any, recent events shine on the truth or fiction of the Steorn Story. At times I have convinced myself that Sean has been lying or deluded and at other times that this has all been a hideous and unfortunate mistake by otherwise smart, good people.

I like what Steorn is saying just now. The words are just words, but I will wait to see if they form into actions. I met a number of employees as well as Sean at various times over the past few days in London. They are devastated by what has happened and it is hard to believe that they would have set themselves up for such a fall deliberately. This is what you would have to believe if you conclude that they are operating a scam or hoax (a psychological illness notwithstanding). In making everything transparent (so to speak) they set the highest hurdle to jump. Why not just fake it? It would be running now. Remember, they did not need to do the demo. It was not in the plan. They added that element recently and while the no-show is consistent with them not having what they say, it is also consistent with an embarrassing error. If it turns out to be anything but the latter, I will walk away. If I see real, concrete evidence (to my satisfaction, not someone else’s) then this blog will champion their efforts to change the world.

My confidence has been shaken, I am suspicious, but I have not yet given up hope.

Stressed-Out Steorn

For what it’s worth, here are my thoughts on the current state of Steorn’s demo.

Anyone who has been an engineer, scientist, programmer, technician, or a practitioner of any art that involves prototyping, will understand what these guys are going through right now. It is easy to say now what they should have done to prepare for such an important event but it would be churlish and unproductive to do so.

We may be disappointed but that is nothing to the Steorn crew’s high-profile stress-out. I will wait until something happens that is worth commenting on before I do so. I keep my fingers crossed that that will be tomorrow when I see the working Orbo doing its thing in Kinetica. Until then, I simply wish them luck.