The Fence
It has been a while so I thought a short update would be appropriate. Things continue apace behind the scenes and I find myself inching towards the fence again. The real curtain is still in place and that is as it should be. Steorn has its agenda and its schedule and we are only privy to its rough outline. The big reveal will be this year as anyone who cares already knows. I am beginning to believe again that the event will be real and significant and now have a sense of why this journey is taking so long. Our want-it-now internet culture needs to be fed and it howls when ignored. In the real world - where people make things happen - hard work, trial and error, mistakes and failure, mark the road to successful revolutions and if Steorn’s claims turn out to be true, few would argue that this is a revolution to mark them all.
I remain cautious but my respect for Steorn is strengthening. These people are serious and they are talented. The obfuscation of the past is replaced by plain speaking and it is evident that the SPDC is a serious feature in the company’s plan. My renewed sceptical self will not allow conclusions to be jumped-upon, but it’s taking some discipline to force myself to heel.
I remain cautious but my respect for Steorn is strengthening. These people are serious and they are talented. The obfuscation of the past is replaced by plain speaking and it is evident that the SPDC is a serious feature in the company’s plan. My renewed sceptical self will not allow conclusions to be jumped-upon, but it’s taking some discipline to force myself to heel.
posted by Paul Story at
12:01
21 Comments:
Great to see you are still monitoring the situation Paul. Lets hope you are right.
Bret
Thanks, Bret.
Interesting Times.
This is really doubtful they will release anything major before the end of the year.
They won't do a press conference between the 25th and 31st of December, probably not after the 20th in any case. That is not the best time to attract attention on a new product.
That means there is about 40 days left. They should already have made over their website, added a "counter to the Orbo Release", started to send invitation to the press (and to members of the SPDC), and much more...
If you have been working for 3 years on a product in a small company, you don't want a confidential release (unless you plan to not sell your product...)
There's one thing we can be sure of with Steorn - they will do it their way. Speculation is fun and despite being wrong many times before, I am as inclined as you to keep guessing on what comes next.
My bet is that the launch will be as they say - this year. It is likely to surprise us and will probably be inventive. Lessons have been learned but fear will not hold them back.
I doubt every question will be answered by the end of the year, but I do believe that cards will be placed face-up and bets will be made in a more open fashion. We already see a more open and cooperative Steorn in the SPDC and I think this is a significant indicator. It also reinforces the impression that they know what they are talking about. Discussions are frank, details are specific and technical. There are many ‘experts’ out there who will be surprised, perhaps a little embarrassed and excited by what Steorn reveals. Some will continue to scoff but Steorn knows what it has to do and I think that it will do it.
That, of course, assumes that they have what they say they have. As I wrote in the post, I am finding it hard to keep away from the fence but continue to force my feet flat on the ground until the spinning wheel spins and spins ‘forever’.
Why would anyone scoff at Fire 2.0, if it were real?
Or do you think it is going to be a release of data that will be so abstruse that no conclusion will be
The truth is that we don't know what they'll deliver. If it is a full reveal and an unambiguous demonstration of their technology that is subsequently replicated around the world by independent parties then, even in that case, there will be some time between the demo and independent verification. I would be astonished if there was no 'scoffing' during this time.
If the reveal is done in any other way then - even if successful - there is likely to be some time between demo and acceptance by the scientific community. That's as it should be but it also leaves a lot of time for FUD to spread.
Finally, if the 'reveal' is a bust then, well... whatever.
Well, they have taken down the forum. Consider my breath officially "baited." Now we wait, some more...
You remind me of Groundskeeper Willie in the classic Simpsons episode "The Joy of Sect". Even when the Leader and his phony Movement have been exposed, you still believe!
Because, for you, some self-promoting con-artists in the East Wall can just *say* they've made a discovery that would overturn all of theoretical physics, and that's good enough for you to think they must be on to something.
Not only do they not need any proof, but when they say they're going to provide it and fail to, you STILL believe them.
And, at the end of this year, despite the fact they say they'll release something this year and right now you say you'll hold them to that, when the end of the year rolls around and the fundamental principles of theoretical physics haven't gone anywhere, you'll still be worshipping your Leader.
I don't understand why my stance, one way or another, makes you want to sneer, Ben. A careful read of my blog will reveal that I am a sceptic. I fully admit to having a tendency to believe the people involved and that gives me pause for thought, but I also recognise that it means little without concrete proof. If they do not deliver this time, I will move on and don't understand why you waste your time with this thing given the bad taste it serves you.
Anyway, there is enough trading of insults elsewhere so I will resist. I understand but am bored with it. Thanks for your comment.
Constant Steorn promotion does not a skeptic make.
Lol.
It's called honesty and my posts reflect the contrary nature of what I see - namely that I cannot help but believe these people and yet recognise that what they say is unbelievable. I don't know how I can be any clearer than that. I wonder if I'm gullible and so keep myself in check when I find my hope strays towards 'belief'. I fully recognise that the odds are against this being real are high.
I care not what you or anyone else thinks of my stance but hope that in laying myself open to ridicule, I can at least convince most readers of my sincerity. I make no apologies for leaving the option open that Steorn have what they say - no matter how unlikely.
Fantastical, unsubstantiated claims must be met with scepticism by scientists - the rest of us can use other factors to help shape our views. Through making such subjective observations, I have decided to watch this drama closely and keep an open mind.
I don't mind anyone disagreeing with my hope against hope stance but find it laughable when someone feels qualified to tell me what I'm actually doing.
I form my own views and am no-one's mouthpiece.
I just read your most recent post. Do I remember incorrectly in remembering that Alan and you had an agreement that you were going to have the "exclusive" amongst the SPDC to write about Orbo?
No one has to tell you what you are doing. That is for anyone who reads what you write to decide for themselves.
After years and years of Steorn's prevarication, just how more bizarre and ironic can a declaration get than: "We already see a more open and cooperative Steorn in the SPDC and I think this is a significant indicator."?
You heap constant praise on a group that produces only discredited claims delivered along a garden path of the worst kind of pseudoscience. You call that being a skeptic. I think you need a new dictionary.
Hi as,
No. As far as I know, no-one has an exclusive. I believe there are one or two books pending the outcome of this mystery but I am not involved in any of them. I thought long and hard about it and realised that it was not for me. I write fiction and, as much as it's tempting to draw parallels, I prefer the freedom of that art.
Anon,
Fair enough. I expect there are others who share your opinion and that’s OK. I just call it as I see it. It seems that there is a world view that would have us conform to one particular order of disbelief - if you are a sceptic, then you must think this and this and this. I probably understand the meaning of the word at least as well as you but this aspect of the conversation is getting into the unproductive arena of childish tit-for-tat and repetitive point scoring, so I will definitely end it here and simply agree to disagree.
With regard to any books on the topic of persons organized as Steorn, there has never been a hard, close and critical examination of their process, although some have tried to characterize it as a Post Modernish attempt to solicit free labor via the .net. There is Steorn and then there is the alignment of permanent magnets and then there is everything else: much of the Steorn BS got mistakenly associated with the magnetic alignment and other technical facts. Once the "free" knowledge is let loose, Steorn's faults ought not to matter: but I wager a deep, critical review of Steorn will tell the world what to look out for when another crew of manipulators and liars in the name of "the good" start messing around with reality using the web.
What does the forum shutdown means to you Paul ?
Does that make you believe Steorn is a fraud or does that make you believe Steorn is preparing their Orbo-launch for christmas ?
I think the latter but have no real priviledged information. They know what they have to do. But Steorn being Steorn, I doubt it will be a simple reveal. My guess is that it will be creative - exciting for some, maddening to others. I was at the London 'demo' and for that and many other reasons have learned not to put too much faith in my guesses.
Through all of this - even through the brick-bats and serious hard work (that much I do know) - the sense of fun has never left them. A small observation, but damned if they are not behaving as though they have something to show the world - when they're ready and in their own unique way.
December 13th. Still no news.
After all this time... Just a little more patience and I'm sure things will start moving.
..and so, Paul, let the "story" begin with the reveal as if Day One and so let the mountain of Gibberish preceding it evaporate into Mankind's Grapheme Lingual Dump. Otherwise, the Realness will not rule FOREVER
What a pathetic demo. See the battery powered motor. This is Steorn's culmination of six years of work.
Not too coincidentally, licenses will be available for just $419 eu, that's four nineteen, just like the Nigerian scam, $419 eu. Operators will be standing by.
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