A New Demo?

Well, so far the good words have produced nothing of significance from Steorn. This might mean no more than they are preparing for a ‘reveal’ on their own terms, but it could equally mean that it’s all bollocks. The spectrum goes all the way from a fully working Orbo to the pack of cards tumbling in the background as investors take note of the voices in their heads and start pulling the plug.

Given this, it is quite remarkable that I have any hope left. I do, despite the bizarre antics of this quite bizarre company - Steorn. It is against all common sense. Consequently I have to question myself and wonder at the human condition that refuses to let go of hard-won preconceptions in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.

Small threads of comfort lie in one piece of indirect evidence that there is more to this than the crap it otherwise appears to be. I cling to this and hope that Sean turns out to be more than the charismatic shyster many assume him to be. If he is on the level then he will be laughing at all our words. I hope he is. Are we about to see a new demo? I have no idea.

Steorn - The Never Ending Story

Two weeks on from the un-demo, nothing much has changed. In one way, my belief in Steorn has remained. There are real things going on behind the scenes that continue to fire the flame of hope, there is incredible circumstantial evidence that this is not the delusion of one charismatic individual. However, the passion and time I have put into this project (I have just spent five months writing a first draft of a SF novel that included a successful Steorn in shaping the landscape of my future world) now gives way to a distant objectivity that requires more than confidence in my own ability to judge people.

As a member of the SPDC, I see many clever and passionate people, in Steorn and outside of the company, working hard to change the world in the understanding that we are not being duped. For obvious reasons I cannot talk about details, but perhaps I can use this blog to convey my confidence level from time to time. While I make no promises regarding my gullibility, I can hope at least to reflect my honest assessment of what is going on without the shade of rose-tinted glasses distorting my view.

Until my confidence in my ability to judge others is restored, I will only update this blog occasionally and when I have some reason to shift my position. If I can tell you why I have shifted then I will, otherwise I will simply report the fact.

Rather than checking here regularly, it may be worth your while subscribing to the newsletter so that when I do post on Steorn, you will receive it automatically.

At the moment, confidence is low. It could change so easily and a part of me expects it to do just that. If it does, it will be my head speaking, not my heart.

Time Out

I almost stayed in London for another couple of days. The Steorn affair has made cryptic detectives of all of us and I was guilty of almost convincing myself that the Sunday Kinetica drinks was a front for an unveiling of Orbo. Instead I'm sitting under a tree in Cambridge. Awesome.

Please forgive my indulgence. Will answer comments soon.

The Steorn Conspiracy

There is little comfort in having dreams shattered. I still hope that my positive view of Steorn will be rescued from the swamp but, for now, I will take whatever crumbs the current situation offers. Up until now, as a natural sceptic standing on the wrong side of the fence, I had few opportunities to compete in the conspiracy game. This has now changed and I can join in the fun.

Last week in London, as I stood looking around the Kinetica stage, Sean performing to the audience, small personal cameras recording the event, I wondered at the setting. At first glance it looked perfect. Professional cameras connected to the net, all pointing to the shamed, immobile, plastic in the centre. An idle thought struck me: what if they were not filming the ‘device’ but the people lured to the stage by the enigmatic pose it struck? This of course, is silly. It would imply that the failure was staged, that Sean’s mea culpa was an act, and that we were all being manipulated. I thought then of the documentary crew. Apparently they were absent. What? Over three years in the making and the crew programme a vacation in the middle of the demo? As far as I am aware, the cameras were theirs, and I think too, that they filmed ‘the failure’. It is astounding to think that after all this time they would shrug their shoulders, lend Sean the cameras and take a hike – unless the cameras were still filming for the documentary and not for the non-existing demo.

Do I think the above is true? I have no idea. Given that there is nothing booked at Kinetica for the next few weeks, I believe anything is possible in this very strange game we are all playing.

Edit to add: Kinetica is apparently closing down and anyone who is interested can join them for drinks on Sunday afternoon. Mmmm...

Steorn's Cryptic Reality

If you’ve followed this blog from the start (all that time ago - lol) my shift in position is obvious. I wanted to get away from the circular arguments relating to Steorn’s technology and steer a more positive and optimistic course into the future. While this is still what I want to do, I would be sticking my head in the sand if I ignored the events of the past week on my ability to suspend disbelief. I am willing to do so again but the barrier is higher. Thus, I will try to look at things dispassionately. I cannot give confidential details of what goes on inside the SPDC but, where I can, I hope my confidence, or otherwise, will be reflected here and give you an indication of how likely this thing is to be a terrible joke played upon a needy world. That can only happen if I am even handed and demonstrate my honesty to you. With so many unknowns, I expect my speculations to be wrong as often as right, but they will always be sincere and when I know I’m wrong, I’ll say so.

To set this in context, the following is a snapshot of my confidence levels through the Steorn belief-landscape:

August 2006 – Economist Ad – Amused Cynicism

September – After a few weeks on the forum – Sceptic

October – Fraud argument sounds weak – Puzzled Sceptic

December – Post-Crank’s visit and the Dublin party, meeting the Steorn folks – I now believe they are telling the truth.

Note that, this is not too far from Dr Mike’s position. We both believed that Sean believes. I chose to go along with him despite understanding the odds. Dr Mike did not. I fully appreciate that Dr Mike’s stance is the safest bet.

On joining the SPDC, there was a single revelation that reinforced my belief that the technology was real (but not the scientific conclusions). That has not changed, but since the failed demo, it is no longer enough. It is not that I don’t trust Sean; I no longer trust my own ability to read him.

I am now sceptical again, but it would take so little and be extremely easy for Steorn to push the fence over. They were going to show the Orbo to the world. There is now no need for the secrecy that shrouded every move they made in the past. They cannot reveal everything until they are ready, but all they need to do is to follow through on their word and be less cryptic (a euphemism for lying?). It has only been a week since the disastrous failure and, after ten months, I can wait a little longer. Steorn cannot afford to compound its error (if that’s what it was) by rushing some half-baked Blair-like response into the public arena, but the simplicity of the solution stares us all in the face and I see no reason for another long-drawn promise that will likely die from lack of interest as people, including me, drift away.

I look forward to turning this blog back on its original course. I look forward to expressing my admiration for the route they have pioneered, their humanitarian stance, and their determination to change the world. I look forward to supporting the most important project of the century, but only if it exists beyond the collective imagination of everyone involved.

McCarthy Mad, Say Mad Scientists

After reading Dr Mike’s interim report, one thing strikes me. In saying that Sean is deluded, he demonstrates a point that most people share upon meeting the man. No, not that Sean is mad, but that Dr Mike is convinced that he is sincere, and that he absolutely believes he has what he says he has. Sir Eric Ash, in his piece for the BBC does the same thing, calling the Steorn CEO genial but suffering from "prolonged self deception."

This is the flipside to the coin seen by many so-called believers who have met him too. Dr Mike and Professor Ash know for a fact that Sean cannot have what he says he has. This is the rock-solid foundation which informs everything they see. However, since they believe him absolutely, the only way they can resolve the dichotomy is to pronounce McCarthy insane. The alternative would be to admit that they were taken in by him and we can't have that. For clear and objective thinkers, I find this conclusion revealing. In pronouncing their diagnosis they also imply that the other people involved are mad or weak in following such a deluded individual without evidence. While this may seem reasonable when tagged to outsiders like me, it is a stretch to do so for Steorn employees, partners and investors. If it turns out to be true that his charm has infected everyone around him with the same self-delusion, then surely the failed demo will force them all to ask serious and hard questions of both themselves and ‘The Master’. Given this, the whole pack will crumble within days and no amount of charm will hold the delusion in place for long.

If that doesn’t happen fast, then sorry guys; you may be clever, but you’ve got it wrong.

Why did it fail?

Apart from the obvious possibility that the Orbo did not exist in the first place, this is my best shot at clearing some of the fog around the London demo’s failure. It is nothing more than my best guess:

Sean claims that the device is simple to build. This confidence led him to inject hurdles that added to the risk of failure. These include:

• Using polycarbonate materials to afford transparency
• Fitting simple ceramic watch bearings to keep opaque elements small
• Concentrating on the artful look over function and reliability
• Settling for a low-torque configuration
• Placing the exhibit in a greenhouse with hot lights focused on it
• Using an untested system (ie poly-built – not the configuration itself)
• Seat-of-the-pants flying
• Insufficient time to recover from inevitable problems
• No fall-back plan

I am sure there are others, but it is easy to see that the above list fits with Sean’s ‘mea culpa’. I do not write this to embarrass Sean further. He has fallen on his sword and apportioning blame is Steorn’s business not mine. I am simply trying to bring clarity to a confused situation with what little information we have. One guess is that, since polycarbonate has a high degree of expansivity, it may have done so under the lights and put excessive and unbalanced pressure on the bearings. (I am told by friends that these type of bearings do not take such treatment well). With such a low-torque system, it would not take a large degradation in performance to kill the rotation.

To conclude, as some people have, that the Orbo is real but fragile, is a leap too far for me. I would find it easier to believe that the device did not exist in the first place and I am not ready to jump to that conclusion either.

Up until now, I figured that the delays and obfuscation were down to giving Steorn time to squeeze the last patent improvements into the system. This conforms to the observation that the continuous motion technology is just off the drawing board. On Friday, I asked Sean if they were now fully patent-protected. He was unequivocal in his answer – yes. Taken together with the demo train-wreck and his display of sincerity regarding a change of approach, I can only pray that we will not have to wait a year for the jury to report. That may have made some sort of sense last month, but the landscape has changed and it no longer does.

Steorn, The Undemo

My confidence has been shaken.

Over the past ten months, I have followed and, for the most part, supported Steorn in their adventure. In the full knowledge that their claims are ‘impossible’ I suspended disbelief on the strength of (for me) compelling circumstantial evidence. This stance was temporary as I was confident that, with patience, proper evidence would come our way. The demo was merely a start, but an important one, that would surely confound the sceptics. Instead, it is I, and many other ‘believers’, who have been confounded.

I have not posted for the past few days because I wanted to get to the other side of my disappointment before doing so. So much time, energy, emotion and money has been invested by so many people that it is easy to run away at the mouth (or fingers) and say things you later regret. With time to think and emotions calmed, I’m ready to re-engage and to explore what light, if any, recent events shine on the truth or fiction of the Steorn Story. At times I have convinced myself that Sean has been lying or deluded and at other times that this has all been a hideous and unfortunate mistake by otherwise smart, good people.

I like what Steorn is saying just now. The words are just words, but I will wait to see if they form into actions. I met a number of employees as well as Sean at various times over the past few days in London. They are devastated by what has happened and it is hard to believe that they would have set themselves up for such a fall deliberately. This is what you would have to believe if you conclude that they are operating a scam or hoax (a psychological illness notwithstanding). In making everything transparent (so to speak) they set the highest hurdle to jump. Why not just fake it? It would be running now. Remember, they did not need to do the demo. It was not in the plan. They added that element recently and while the no-show is consistent with them not having what they say, it is also consistent with an embarrassing error. If it turns out to be anything but the latter, I will walk away. If I see real, concrete evidence (to my satisfaction, not someone else’s) then this blog will champion their efforts to change the world.

My confidence has been shaken, I am suspicious, but I have not yet given up hope.

Stressed-Out Steorn

For what it’s worth, here are my thoughts on the current state of Steorn’s demo.

Anyone who has been an engineer, scientist, programmer, technician, or a practitioner of any art that involves prototyping, will understand what these guys are going through right now. It is easy to say now what they should have done to prepare for such an important event but it would be churlish and unproductive to do so.

We may be disappointed but that is nothing to the Steorn crew’s high-profile stress-out. I will wait until something happens that is worth commenting on before I do so. I keep my fingers crossed that that will be tomorrow when I see the working Orbo doing its thing in Kinetica. Until then, I simply wish them luck.

Will IT? Won't IT?

I will reserve my comments until we see what happens today. We all know that things can go wrong in many ways but if in the end they deliver, all will be forgotten. If the problem really is one of a simple mechanical nature then Steorn must be in an uncomfortable place now. Tempted as I am, I won't add to that discomfort.

London Demo

The first media report is out in the Belfast Telegraph regarding the London Demo.

Not too impressive but then, what can they say? That's the problem with wanting to be first - no information to go on.

Over the next 10 days I will make a number of visits to the demo and keep you informed as I get more information.

This could be the start of a new journey for us all - will media attention reflect this or will they be too busy chasing Ms Hilton? I'm sure they can do both. There are a lot of serious journalists out
there who fully understand the implications. If the demo lives up to the bill then the media will run with it, I'm sure. We're about to find out either way.

Steorn - The Summary

My last post was a little effusive. I make no apology for that. I would however point out something that the less forgiving among you may have missed. If you do not agree with my reasons for saying that Steorn could not have made a mistake with regard to the functionality of their machine, then you are unlikely to agree with the following. Nevertheless, I do:

If these people are truthful then everything I wrote in the last entry is reasonable and those involved deserve the accolades that will surely come their way. If not, and I have been duped, then it is by a group of individuals who have no moral compass; who are willing to use false charity and the plight of billions of disadvantaged people to sell whatever it is they are trying to sell. We can tie ourselves up in knots all we like, but I find that keeping this point in focus along with my judgement from meeting them (until genuine proof comes our way) cuts through the clutter and allows me to say with confidence the things I say.

The summary document I promised is now available and linked at the right of the main page. It is written with the newcomer in mind so, if you know of anyone who wants to be brought up to speed, please direct them there. Alternatively, you may distribute the unaltered document or quote from it freely, with appropriate attributes given. If you have any comments or suggestions about improving it, I would welcome them. I hope it's useful.

Steorn - The Movie

There is something about Steorn’s story that is almost as incredible as the harnessing of free energy itself. As the argument rages around the globe, there is a curious omission in the debate. If this were a movie – and someday it probably will be – Steorn, the company, would be an extraordinary character. Played by Jim Carey cloned with Colin Farrell, it is a wild-child maniac, picking fights, enacting crazy stunts, biting the heels of King Kong –all before ending the reel by saving the universe.

If ever there was a candidate to feed the conspiracy theorists, this is it. What is the likelihood of Fire 2.0 being discovered by a bunch of renegade engineers-come-showmen-come-saviours-come-businessmen? Depending on what day it is, your personal perspective, or what mood the company is in, it can come across as ingenious, frustrating, patient, diligent, silly, caring, daring or bloody reckless.

The truth is that they are extraordinary because they are human. They are ordinary because they are without affectation. I’ve often wondered what I would have done if I’d discovered such a technology. I would probably have followed their journey fairly closely in the first couple of years, working quietly, raising funds, patenting what I could to prepare for launch. I wonder though, if the secrecy, the responsibility, the lure of gold, the excitement, the tension and worry would not leave its mark after almost four years and so close, now, to the goal. Meeting the Steorn crew, one cannot avoid being struck by their affable personalities. They are, at turns, relaxed, funny, serious, focused, and sociable. I get the impression that they would rather wind the day down with a pint of Guinness than a bucket of Champagne. Where many of us might dream of being the next Bill Gates, McCarthy & Co is scheming to change the world.

Everything they do highlights the marriage of sound business sense with responsible, world citizens.

Over the past year they have shepherded a minor media frenzy, recruited a jury of scientists to test the impossible, improved their tech so that they are close to Fire 2.01, shaved their heads for charity, held a forum party for a bunch of strangers from around the world, set up the SPDC, moved on the Africa project, smiled at vicious verbal and written attacks, organised a demo of a tech destined to change the planet and finessed their business plans to nurture humanitarian projects even as they prepare to take on the global giants of the energy business. And still they had time for fun. Songs have been composed and sung, silly videos have been made and drinks have been downed in one. Now that is pretty damned cool. (I made the bit up about the drink because the sentence worked better, but it might be true).

I will return to this subject sometime in the future. For now, I would like to plant a seed. In everything that follows - in the coming months - as realisation dawns to the truth of Steorn’s claims, we should recognise how lucky we are that it was discovered in a tiny corner of Dublin and not in my basement. Sure they’ll make money; but they’ll do much, much more. They are going to reshape the world and nothing is going to get in their way.

Lights! Camera! Action!

A Free Lunch From Steorn

Something bothered me about Steorn’s claims early in my research. It is one thing to say that you can make magnets do work and quite another to say that they will keep doing so without degradation for the life of the machine. If the permanent magnets degraded over time or simply demagnetised, then recharging them periodically would constitute fuel and the whole dream comes tumbling down.

I couldn’t understand how Steorn could make this claim. True, they’ve been playing around with this tech for a few years now, but as far as I know, they have not simply set one going and let it run for a year or two. Rather, they have been hunting for new and better ways to do the same thing, testing and retesting exhaustively, starting it off, measuring performances, torques and speed before stopping it, tweaking some aspect of the design and then running the tests again. Exhaustive, time-consuming and the stuff of good engineering design. But, if that’s true, how can they know that the magnets don’t demagnetise?

The answer lies in something Sean said in the Steorn public forum in November last year. Posting to the forum, he said that if a permanent magnet, initially magnetised to 80% of its capacity, was used in the device, then after some time in operation it would have increased its strength to 100%.

I’m not sure if the 100% figure refers to saturation or retentivity – probably the latter. Either way, it is an astonishing statement. Now we can understand their confidence. While nothing will beat a long field trial to prove the point, the knowledge that the magnetisation is topped up as it runs, is the key to the magic that is about to change our world. Where is the energy coming from? Why does a permanent magnet do that? These are questions that will excite scientists working on the subject in the coming years. Meanwhile the rest of us can hop on the ride happy in the knowledge that Steorn has confounded one more law:

There really is such a thing as a free lunch.