Writing Retreat

Hi all. Over the next few months I have the good fortune to be able to write from a beautiful and remote location on a Croatian Island. Given the paucity of events surrounding Steorn, I'm not sure it will make any real difference to the frequency (ie low frequency) of my posts. I will of course still keep up to date in whatever fashion I can and will certainly log into the SPDC as often as I can get access.

To all my friends in the SPDC and beyond, thanks for reading and I look forward to having something worth saying - someday -about this strange mystery.

Come on Sean... how difficult can changing the world be?

Shifting Sands

You may have noticed a somewhat schizophrenic tone to my last post. Such an observation is reasonable and fairly reflects my position with regards to Steorn. While the lack of anything tangible from them is extremely frustrating, I cannot help wondering if they are not onto something important. I do not buy the notion that a commercial company must conform to the rules of scientific disclosure no matter how much I wish they would.

As stated in that post, I had intended to use this entry to detail the reasoning behind my stance but there is something more interesting happening on the public forum and it is worth pausing to look at it if you have not done so already.

An idea, first proposed by a member going by the handle ‘overconfident’, has finally taken shape through a collaborating effort with a skilled builder (going by the handle ‘alsetalokin’). The narrative is fascinating and is detailed in a single thread that spans the months from October 2007 to the present time. It is too early to tell what is going on here but it is certainly worth a look. My immediate reaction is that the open nature of the project will allow anyone with the tools and know-how to replicate the device. This should help nail it down and explain any problem with the demo if one exists. Problem or not, we will all benefit from the lessons learned.

Caution prevails, but that does not make the demo any less interesting. No matter the final significance (or otherwise) of the machine, its open nature is a great example of how the net will eventually allow us to amplify our efforts to produce great things.


The thread is here

And the device video here

The Dream of Steorn

Looking back on the past year, I find myself asking the question:

Have I used my time wisely in supporting Steorn?

As it stands, I have to conclude that the answer is, ‘No’.

My belief in the company and its claims was based on my belief in the people involved and the concrete nature of their promises. The bold, brash announcements backed by hard currency seemed to defy common sense. Talk of breaking the laws of physics – in particular the principle of CoE – jarred with what I ‘knew’ to be true. I reconciled this by publicly stating that they were likely wrong on this point (or playing for controversy) even if they had the machines they claimed to have. However, as engineers, they could not mistake building a physical device that does not need fuel and was yet capable of producing 0.5W per cc indefinitely. They had to be lying or they had to have what they said they had.

Intrigued, I broke a holiday and flew from Spain to Dublin to meet these crazy people face to face. Sean Mc was disarming and I could easily see how anyone could be conned by such Irish charm. If the affable CEO had been a lone wolf, my defences would have remained intact. But he wasn’t. Surrounded by so many Steorn employees and talking to some of the key players, I was struck by the relaxed atmosphere and a sense that these people were convinced they were about to change the world. I was also energized by the enthusiastic drive to use the ‘Steorn Effect’ for humanitarian purposes and not simply as a lever to gain global supremacy. Sure, they would make money but, more importantly, they would bring light and heat and water and refrigeration and transport and all the benefits of our modern world to those in need – without charging them for a licence. Further, by seeding the planet with an inexhaustible source of green power, the Steorn crew would save the human race from itself.

After the Dublin party, I could not reconcile the difference between the people I met and the despicable liars they would have to be, if all of this was smoke and mirrors. Lying aside, there was also the question of intelligence. The claims were so bold, so precise and so (eventually) verifiable that it appeared extremely unlikely they would set themselves up for such an inevitable public fall. Remember, we are not talking about shadowy Internet figures, these are real people, easily traced and with lives and responsibilities that extend beyond Steorn.

Sixteen months on from the Economist advert, little of substance has emerged to move this thing forward. If I had known this at the time, I would not have gone to Dublin, not have spent a thousand hours, reading, writing, thinking and breathing the dream that led to this blog. I would not have returned from Croatia to London for the non-demo and I would not have made Steorn an integral part of my current novel.

It would be reasonable for anyone to conclude from the above that I have lost all hope but this is not true. I merely state that I would not have suspended my disbelief at the time if my crystal ball had been working. If you were among those who predicted that Steorn would not show anything at the demo but would instead shift the goal posts, fudge and continue to push back promises until they faded away, to-date it looks like you hit the mark and I missed.

I will try to pull together an entry that summarizes the reason I still hold on to the dream (or fantasy) of a future Steorn Miracle. The hope is nowhere near as strong as it was, but it is still there and the stakes are still huge. Steorn has not gone away and one way or another, there is more to this story than meets the eye.

2007 And All That

With the year closing fast, many of you have asked for a summary of where I think we are with the Steorn story. I will do this after I return from a remote break with friends in a few days time. Until then, I just wanted to wish all of you - no matter what side of the fence you are on - health, happiness and peace for you, your family and friends in 2008 and beyond.

Paul

Steorn - A Non-Update

A number of readers have asked for an update even if it is just to say that there is little of note happening to talk about. It will come as no surprise to hear that my silence reflects the lack of real information needed to shift my position one way or another. To many, convinced that the Steorn phenomenon is dying, the lack of noise is proof that it was all vapour in the first place. For me, like most things Steorn, it can be read in many ways. After the non-demo, Sean and Co decided to change how they interacted with the public. The showmanship is muted, serious work is being done behind the scenes. Someday we will all be amazed when they pull back the curtain. Maybe.

Most of us only see the results of a new technology or scientific progress after it makes the headlines. In the past, this has been when an actual product hits the streets or peer review reports that there is a real reason to get excited. For good or ill, we have been party to the messy underbelly of trial and error. Anyone who has tried to push the boundaries of any field will recognise the confusion and mistakes for what they are. The net, and our insatiable appetite for sensation, have brought us a little too close to the forge and sparks are flying. Our expectations are unrealistic - these things take time.

While I am no longer convinced that Steorn has found energy's Holy Grail, I still hope. Patience is restored. The company may be folding as I write this, but I doubt it. They might be covering their tracks, but they could equally be doing what they say they are doing - what they should have done all along. We are all culpable in stirring the hype; and I have played my part in helping it along the way. I will no longer do this. If I get excited in the future about something Steorn has revealed in the SPDC, it will be for good reason. Until then, I remain circumspect about the whole affair.

As an aside, I believe in Science. Its structure and its practitioners have changed our lives – mostly for the good. That does not mean, however, that there is no room for improvement. No matter the outcome of this drama, I think we are witnessing something extremely important. The power of the net to unite people for and against a particular idea or claim is likely to accelerate the pace of change. The evolution of memes has a new engine and our world view will alter as power shifts away from the centralised control of the establishment into the hands of the many – or at least the educated subset. We are likely seeing the downside of this at the moment, but in the end I believe the gravy will be rich. Yes, there will be more froth as fashion and hype feed from gullible minds, but when tangible results bubble to the top, no one will be able to deny them. When they do, we will not care where they came from. The collective intelligence will be driven by a few stars that could, in effect, become the new filters that replace the slow moving juggernaut guarding the temples of accepted knowledge. The difference will be that these stars will no longer be immovable, propped up by vested interests. I do not believe there is a global conspiracy to keep new ideas out of sight, but I do think that, when a few individuals hold so much power, their certainty, the notion of infallibility, the investment of time, energy and intellect can clog the filter and halt progress. Will the Steorn outcome shore up their position or point to the dynamic power of the new order? I don't know, but for me, the answer is at least as important as the idea of free energy. For this reason and many others, I watch and wait.

Steorn - Hope

I am outside my tent in a remote part of the Scottish Highlands. Powering my UPC with a solar panel in the pouring rain is not easy, but I thank the scientists and engineers, the business people and financiers who have made such a miracle even possible. My writing desk is anywhere in the world and I'm surrounded by beauty instead of four grey walls.

The weather has been so poor that I've rationed my power and therefore my time on the net. However, catching up with what's going on in the SPDC has, for the first time since the failed demo, put me back in an optimistic frame. I can't, for obvious reasons, say what, but interesting things are happening in there.

With my new pragmatic and sceptical head on, I will not go so far as to jump the fence again although I am tempted to do so. Steorn's silence may frustrate and infuriate some people but they are dancing to their own tune and I like the sound of it.

Perhaps, one day yet, we can all use an Orbo where the sun don't shine and Steorn might - just might - bring the planet what they promised. If that happens, I will regain something I wondered that I might have lost: faith in my ability to judge people, to recognise sincerity and to act on it no matter the odds.

A New Demo?

Well, so far the good words have produced nothing of significance from Steorn. This might mean no more than they are preparing for a ‘reveal’ on their own terms, but it could equally mean that it’s all bollocks. The spectrum goes all the way from a fully working Orbo to the pack of cards tumbling in the background as investors take note of the voices in their heads and start pulling the plug.

Given this, it is quite remarkable that I have any hope left. I do, despite the bizarre antics of this quite bizarre company - Steorn. It is against all common sense. Consequently I have to question myself and wonder at the human condition that refuses to let go of hard-won preconceptions in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.

Small threads of comfort lie in one piece of indirect evidence that there is more to this than the crap it otherwise appears to be. I cling to this and hope that Sean turns out to be more than the charismatic shyster many assume him to be. If he is on the level then he will be laughing at all our words. I hope he is. Are we about to see a new demo? I have no idea.

Steorn - The Never Ending Story

Two weeks on from the un-demo, nothing much has changed. In one way, my belief in Steorn has remained. There are real things going on behind the scenes that continue to fire the flame of hope, there is incredible circumstantial evidence that this is not the delusion of one charismatic individual. However, the passion and time I have put into this project (I have just spent five months writing a first draft of a SF novel that included a successful Steorn in shaping the landscape of my future world) now gives way to a distant objectivity that requires more than confidence in my own ability to judge people.

As a member of the SPDC, I see many clever and passionate people, in Steorn and outside of the company, working hard to change the world in the understanding that we are not being duped. For obvious reasons I cannot talk about details, but perhaps I can use this blog to convey my confidence level from time to time. While I make no promises regarding my gullibility, I can hope at least to reflect my honest assessment of what is going on without the shade of rose-tinted glasses distorting my view.

Until my confidence in my ability to judge others is restored, I will only update this blog occasionally and when I have some reason to shift my position. If I can tell you why I have shifted then I will, otherwise I will simply report the fact.

Rather than checking here regularly, it may be worth your while subscribing to the newsletter so that when I do post on Steorn, you will receive it automatically.

At the moment, confidence is low. It could change so easily and a part of me expects it to do just that. If it does, it will be my head speaking, not my heart.

Time Out

I almost stayed in London for another couple of days. The Steorn affair has made cryptic detectives of all of us and I was guilty of almost convincing myself that the Sunday Kinetica drinks was a front for an unveiling of Orbo. Instead I'm sitting under a tree in Cambridge. Awesome.

Please forgive my indulgence. Will answer comments soon.

The Steorn Conspiracy

There is little comfort in having dreams shattered. I still hope that my positive view of Steorn will be rescued from the swamp but, for now, I will take whatever crumbs the current situation offers. Up until now, as a natural sceptic standing on the wrong side of the fence, I had few opportunities to compete in the conspiracy game. This has now changed and I can join in the fun.

Last week in London, as I stood looking around the Kinetica stage, Sean performing to the audience, small personal cameras recording the event, I wondered at the setting. At first glance it looked perfect. Professional cameras connected to the net, all pointing to the shamed, immobile, plastic in the centre. An idle thought struck me: what if they were not filming the ‘device’ but the people lured to the stage by the enigmatic pose it struck? This of course, is silly. It would imply that the failure was staged, that Sean’s mea culpa was an act, and that we were all being manipulated. I thought then of the documentary crew. Apparently they were absent. What? Over three years in the making and the crew programme a vacation in the middle of the demo? As far as I am aware, the cameras were theirs, and I think too, that they filmed ‘the failure’. It is astounding to think that after all this time they would shrug their shoulders, lend Sean the cameras and take a hike – unless the cameras were still filming for the documentary and not for the non-existing demo.

Do I think the above is true? I have no idea. Given that there is nothing booked at Kinetica for the next few weeks, I believe anything is possible in this very strange game we are all playing.

Edit to add: Kinetica is apparently closing down and anyone who is interested can join them for drinks on Sunday afternoon. Mmmm...

Steorn's Cryptic Reality

If you’ve followed this blog from the start (all that time ago - lol) my shift in position is obvious. I wanted to get away from the circular arguments relating to Steorn’s technology and steer a more positive and optimistic course into the future. While this is still what I want to do, I would be sticking my head in the sand if I ignored the events of the past week on my ability to suspend disbelief. I am willing to do so again but the barrier is higher. Thus, I will try to look at things dispassionately. I cannot give confidential details of what goes on inside the SPDC but, where I can, I hope my confidence, or otherwise, will be reflected here and give you an indication of how likely this thing is to be a terrible joke played upon a needy world. That can only happen if I am even handed and demonstrate my honesty to you. With so many unknowns, I expect my speculations to be wrong as often as right, but they will always be sincere and when I know I’m wrong, I’ll say so.

To set this in context, the following is a snapshot of my confidence levels through the Steorn belief-landscape:

August 2006 – Economist Ad – Amused Cynicism

September – After a few weeks on the forum – Sceptic

October – Fraud argument sounds weak – Puzzled Sceptic

December – Post-Crank’s visit and the Dublin party, meeting the Steorn folks – I now believe they are telling the truth.

Note that, this is not too far from Dr Mike’s position. We both believed that Sean believes. I chose to go along with him despite understanding the odds. Dr Mike did not. I fully appreciate that Dr Mike’s stance is the safest bet.

On joining the SPDC, there was a single revelation that reinforced my belief that the technology was real (but not the scientific conclusions). That has not changed, but since the failed demo, it is no longer enough. It is not that I don’t trust Sean; I no longer trust my own ability to read him.

I am now sceptical again, but it would take so little and be extremely easy for Steorn to push the fence over. They were going to show the Orbo to the world. There is now no need for the secrecy that shrouded every move they made in the past. They cannot reveal everything until they are ready, but all they need to do is to follow through on their word and be less cryptic (a euphemism for lying?). It has only been a week since the disastrous failure and, after ten months, I can wait a little longer. Steorn cannot afford to compound its error (if that’s what it was) by rushing some half-baked Blair-like response into the public arena, but the simplicity of the solution stares us all in the face and I see no reason for another long-drawn promise that will likely die from lack of interest as people, including me, drift away.

I look forward to turning this blog back on its original course. I look forward to expressing my admiration for the route they have pioneered, their humanitarian stance, and their determination to change the world. I look forward to supporting the most important project of the century, but only if it exists beyond the collective imagination of everyone involved.

McCarthy Mad, Say Mad Scientists

After reading Dr Mike’s interim report, one thing strikes me. In saying that Sean is deluded, he demonstrates a point that most people share upon meeting the man. No, not that Sean is mad, but that Dr Mike is convinced that he is sincere, and that he absolutely believes he has what he says he has. Sir Eric Ash, in his piece for the BBC does the same thing, calling the Steorn CEO genial but suffering from "prolonged self deception."

This is the flipside to the coin seen by many so-called believers who have met him too. Dr Mike and Professor Ash know for a fact that Sean cannot have what he says he has. This is the rock-solid foundation which informs everything they see. However, since they believe him absolutely, the only way they can resolve the dichotomy is to pronounce McCarthy insane. The alternative would be to admit that they were taken in by him and we can't have that. For clear and objective thinkers, I find this conclusion revealing. In pronouncing their diagnosis they also imply that the other people involved are mad or weak in following such a deluded individual without evidence. While this may seem reasonable when tagged to outsiders like me, it is a stretch to do so for Steorn employees, partners and investors. If it turns out to be true that his charm has infected everyone around him with the same self-delusion, then surely the failed demo will force them all to ask serious and hard questions of both themselves and ‘The Master’. Given this, the whole pack will crumble within days and no amount of charm will hold the delusion in place for long.

If that doesn’t happen fast, then sorry guys; you may be clever, but you’ve got it wrong.

Why did it fail?

Apart from the obvious possibility that the Orbo did not exist in the first place, this is my best shot at clearing some of the fog around the London demo’s failure. It is nothing more than my best guess:

Sean claims that the device is simple to build. This confidence led him to inject hurdles that added to the risk of failure. These include:

• Using polycarbonate materials to afford transparency
• Fitting simple ceramic watch bearings to keep opaque elements small
• Concentrating on the artful look over function and reliability
• Settling for a low-torque configuration
• Placing the exhibit in a greenhouse with hot lights focused on it
• Using an untested system (ie poly-built – not the configuration itself)
• Seat-of-the-pants flying
• Insufficient time to recover from inevitable problems
• No fall-back plan

I am sure there are others, but it is easy to see that the above list fits with Sean’s ‘mea culpa’. I do not write this to embarrass Sean further. He has fallen on his sword and apportioning blame is Steorn’s business not mine. I am simply trying to bring clarity to a confused situation with what little information we have. One guess is that, since polycarbonate has a high degree of expansivity, it may have done so under the lights and put excessive and unbalanced pressure on the bearings. (I am told by friends that these type of bearings do not take such treatment well). With such a low-torque system, it would not take a large degradation in performance to kill the rotation.

To conclude, as some people have, that the Orbo is real but fragile, is a leap too far for me. I would find it easier to believe that the device did not exist in the first place and I am not ready to jump to that conclusion either.

Up until now, I figured that the delays and obfuscation were down to giving Steorn time to squeeze the last patent improvements into the system. This conforms to the observation that the continuous motion technology is just off the drawing board. On Friday, I asked Sean if they were now fully patent-protected. He was unequivocal in his answer – yes. Taken together with the demo train-wreck and his display of sincerity regarding a change of approach, I can only pray that we will not have to wait a year for the jury to report. That may have made some sort of sense last month, but the landscape has changed and it no longer does.

Steorn, The Undemo

My confidence has been shaken.

Over the past ten months, I have followed and, for the most part, supported Steorn in their adventure. In the full knowledge that their claims are ‘impossible’ I suspended disbelief on the strength of (for me) compelling circumstantial evidence. This stance was temporary as I was confident that, with patience, proper evidence would come our way. The demo was merely a start, but an important one, that would surely confound the sceptics. Instead, it is I, and many other ‘believers’, who have been confounded.

I have not posted for the past few days because I wanted to get to the other side of my disappointment before doing so. So much time, energy, emotion and money has been invested by so many people that it is easy to run away at the mouth (or fingers) and say things you later regret. With time to think and emotions calmed, I’m ready to re-engage and to explore what light, if any, recent events shine on the truth or fiction of the Steorn Story. At times I have convinced myself that Sean has been lying or deluded and at other times that this has all been a hideous and unfortunate mistake by otherwise smart, good people.

I like what Steorn is saying just now. The words are just words, but I will wait to see if they form into actions. I met a number of employees as well as Sean at various times over the past few days in London. They are devastated by what has happened and it is hard to believe that they would have set themselves up for such a fall deliberately. This is what you would have to believe if you conclude that they are operating a scam or hoax (a psychological illness notwithstanding). In making everything transparent (so to speak) they set the highest hurdle to jump. Why not just fake it? It would be running now. Remember, they did not need to do the demo. It was not in the plan. They added that element recently and while the no-show is consistent with them not having what they say, it is also consistent with an embarrassing error. If it turns out to be anything but the latter, I will walk away. If I see real, concrete evidence (to my satisfaction, not someone else’s) then this blog will champion their efforts to change the world.

My confidence has been shaken, I am suspicious, but I have not yet given up hope.

Stressed-Out Steorn

For what it’s worth, here are my thoughts on the current state of Steorn’s demo.

Anyone who has been an engineer, scientist, programmer, technician, or a practitioner of any art that involves prototyping, will understand what these guys are going through right now. It is easy to say now what they should have done to prepare for such an important event but it would be churlish and unproductive to do so.

We may be disappointed but that is nothing to the Steorn crew’s high-profile stress-out. I will wait until something happens that is worth commenting on before I do so. I keep my fingers crossed that that will be tomorrow when I see the working Orbo doing its thing in Kinetica. Until then, I simply wish them luck.

Will IT? Won't IT?

I will reserve my comments until we see what happens today. We all know that things can go wrong in many ways but if in the end they deliver, all will be forgotten. If the problem really is one of a simple mechanical nature then Steorn must be in an uncomfortable place now. Tempted as I am, I won't add to that discomfort.

London Demo

The first media report is out in the Belfast Telegraph regarding the London Demo.

Not too impressive but then, what can they say? That's the problem with wanting to be first - no information to go on.

Over the next 10 days I will make a number of visits to the demo and keep you informed as I get more information.

This could be the start of a new journey for us all - will media attention reflect this or will they be too busy chasing Ms Hilton? I'm sure they can do both. There are a lot of serious journalists out
there who fully understand the implications. If the demo lives up to the bill then the media will run with it, I'm sure. We're about to find out either way.

Steorn - The Summary

My last post was a little effusive. I make no apology for that. I would however point out something that the less forgiving among you may have missed. If you do not agree with my reasons for saying that Steorn could not have made a mistake with regard to the functionality of their machine, then you are unlikely to agree with the following. Nevertheless, I do:

If these people are truthful then everything I wrote in the last entry is reasonable and those involved deserve the accolades that will surely come their way. If not, and I have been duped, then it is by a group of individuals who have no moral compass; who are willing to use false charity and the plight of billions of disadvantaged people to sell whatever it is they are trying to sell. We can tie ourselves up in knots all we like, but I find that keeping this point in focus along with my judgement from meeting them (until genuine proof comes our way) cuts through the clutter and allows me to say with confidence the things I say.

The summary document I promised is now available and linked at the right of the main page. It is written with the newcomer in mind so, if you know of anyone who wants to be brought up to speed, please direct them there. Alternatively, you may distribute the unaltered document or quote from it freely, with appropriate attributes given. If you have any comments or suggestions about improving it, I would welcome them. I hope it's useful.

Steorn - The Movie

There is something about Steorn’s story that is almost as incredible as the harnessing of free energy itself. As the argument rages around the globe, there is a curious omission in the debate. If this were a movie – and someday it probably will be – Steorn, the company, would be an extraordinary character. Played by Jim Carey cloned with Colin Farrell, it is a wild-child maniac, picking fights, enacting crazy stunts, biting the heels of King Kong –all before ending the reel by saving the universe.

If ever there was a candidate to feed the conspiracy theorists, this is it. What is the likelihood of Fire 2.0 being discovered by a bunch of renegade engineers-come-showmen-come-saviours-come-businessmen? Depending on what day it is, your personal perspective, or what mood the company is in, it can come across as ingenious, frustrating, patient, diligent, silly, caring, daring or bloody reckless.

The truth is that they are extraordinary because they are human. They are ordinary because they are without affectation. I’ve often wondered what I would have done if I’d discovered such a technology. I would probably have followed their journey fairly closely in the first couple of years, working quietly, raising funds, patenting what I could to prepare for launch. I wonder though, if the secrecy, the responsibility, the lure of gold, the excitement, the tension and worry would not leave its mark after almost four years and so close, now, to the goal. Meeting the Steorn crew, one cannot avoid being struck by their affable personalities. They are, at turns, relaxed, funny, serious, focused, and sociable. I get the impression that they would rather wind the day down with a pint of Guinness than a bucket of Champagne. Where many of us might dream of being the next Bill Gates, McCarthy & Co is scheming to change the world.

Everything they do highlights the marriage of sound business sense with responsible, world citizens.

Over the past year they have shepherded a minor media frenzy, recruited a jury of scientists to test the impossible, improved their tech so that they are close to Fire 2.01, shaved their heads for charity, held a forum party for a bunch of strangers from around the world, set up the SPDC, moved on the Africa project, smiled at vicious verbal and written attacks, organised a demo of a tech destined to change the planet and finessed their business plans to nurture humanitarian projects even as they prepare to take on the global giants of the energy business. And still they had time for fun. Songs have been composed and sung, silly videos have been made and drinks have been downed in one. Now that is pretty damned cool. (I made the bit up about the drink because the sentence worked better, but it might be true).

I will return to this subject sometime in the future. For now, I would like to plant a seed. In everything that follows - in the coming months - as realisation dawns to the truth of Steorn’s claims, we should recognise how lucky we are that it was discovered in a tiny corner of Dublin and not in my basement. Sure they’ll make money; but they’ll do much, much more. They are going to reshape the world and nothing is going to get in their way.

Lights! Camera! Action!

A Free Lunch From Steorn

Something bothered me about Steorn’s claims early in my research. It is one thing to say that you can make magnets do work and quite another to say that they will keep doing so without degradation for the life of the machine. If the permanent magnets degraded over time or simply demagnetised, then recharging them periodically would constitute fuel and the whole dream comes tumbling down.

I couldn’t understand how Steorn could make this claim. True, they’ve been playing around with this tech for a few years now, but as far as I know, they have not simply set one going and let it run for a year or two. Rather, they have been hunting for new and better ways to do the same thing, testing and retesting exhaustively, starting it off, measuring performances, torques and speed before stopping it, tweaking some aspect of the design and then running the tests again. Exhaustive, time-consuming and the stuff of good engineering design. But, if that’s true, how can they know that the magnets don’t demagnetise?

The answer lies in something Sean said in the Steorn public forum in November last year. Posting to the forum, he said that if a permanent magnet, initially magnetised to 80% of its capacity, was used in the device, then after some time in operation it would have increased its strength to 100%.

I’m not sure if the 100% figure refers to saturation or retentivity – probably the latter. Either way, it is an astonishing statement. Now we can understand their confidence. While nothing will beat a long field trial to prove the point, the knowledge that the magnetisation is topped up as it runs, is the key to the magic that is about to change our world. Where is the energy coming from? Why does a permanent magnet do that? These are questions that will excite scientists working on the subject in the coming years. Meanwhile the rest of us can hop on the ride happy in the knowledge that Steorn has confounded one more law:

There really is such a thing as a free lunch.

Steorn vs Science

Teddies are thrown from cots, pigtails are pulled and feet are stamped very, very hard. Scientists are furious.

In an earlier post and in various comments, I’ve postulated that for Steorn’s tech to change the world, Sean & Co only have to be telling the truth. They can be wrong about the science stuff, but not the engineering. The idea that they could have made a measurement error is simply laughable. It is possible that their spinning thing spins, that it powers a revolution in energy generation and, as it does, it fuels an explosion so bright that shadows shatter and veils fall. New insights follow. Another part of our universe is revealed for what it truly is.

Science and Steorn kiss and make up.

The centre-piece in this drama is something scientists call, Conservation of Energy. A central pillar of science, the concept is used in thousands of calculations around the world on any given day. We cannot create energy; merely convert it from one form to another. This means that when a machine performs work, we always get less out than we put in. There are inevitable losses (heat, noise, vibration etc). Since these losses are forms of energy and we cannot create the stuff, we always operate below 100% efficiency. In saying that they have a machine that gets more out than it puts in, Steorn attracts scepticism. To go further and to say that it destroys the laws of physics is something else indeed.

So, what’s the beef? Why are they saying this? The truth is, I don’t know, but here are some thoughts:

When we’re talking about the impossible, anything’s possible – including Steorn being correct in their analysis. We know they’re smart and, I at least, assume they are truthful. They say that, to the best of their ability, they have measured every source and sink of energy they could and can find no sign of where the stuff is coming from. The corollary here is that they are somehow creating it out of nothing.

If you isolate a machine that is producing a particular power output, you can perform a thermodynamic analysis that should tell you if, for example, the energy is being drawn from ambient air temperature. This is one of the areas where it is easy to make errors in measurement and interpretation. However, it’s a lot simpler to do if the energy being ‘produced’ is so great that any corresponding loss to the environment should be obvious. This should be the case with an Orbo.

The energy density of Steorn-tech is so high that they feel confident in saying that it has to be coming from some mysterious and unknown phenomenon - that it is being created. However, if we are going to talk about new science, why not conjure up some new fuel source instead? Many physicists now believe that particles are created and destroyed all the time and all around us – even in the most absolute of vacuums. Who knows? There are so many candidates for analysis, that risking your credibility on an assertion that the foundation laws of science are wrong, is courting controversy.

They may believe what they say and turn out to be right, but I can’t help but wonder if they are simply picking a fight to gather a crowd to the playground.

Steorn - Summary 3

Thinking about what I’d like to see in a summary document it occurred to me that it may not be obvious to everyone what some of the terms used in the discussions actually mean. With that in mind here are some ‘facts’ about the technology as I see them:

The base output of this thing is mechanical. According to Sean, the quoted figure of 0.5W/cc includes the coils and other elements needed to convert this to electricity. We are talking roughly a half Watt in the approximate size of a sugar cube. If we relate this to quantities that we are used to dealing with, we might think of a 60W bulb or a 1KW electric fire. At first this might not seem very impressive. A 60W bulb would need around 120 ‘sugar cubes’ to power it. Remember though that this is a volume relationship, so a 5x5x5 stack would get us there. With LED and other energy-saving devices, we can get good quality lighting at under 10 Watts - a little over 2X2X2 cubes.

At the other end of the scale, imagine something the size of a small dining table (1 cubic metre). This volume would hold a million of these little buggers - a lot of sweetener or a lot of energy depending on how good you are at analogies.

That’s a half megawatt of power. If we were talking about a bank of batteries it would pack a powerful punch, but as a free energy device that keeps going and going and going, we start to get a picture of what all the fuss is about.

Knowing that this is the starting point for the coming revolution and recognising that it is likely to get even better in the near future, it’s likely that this thing is going to blow our socks off.

Talking of which…

I hear, from some quarters, that the output of a free energy device should be able to be routed back into the input to generate an infinitely growing supply of juice until it consumed the galaxy – or words to that effect. Forgetting the point that it would destroy itself before the universe, in the case of Steorn’s technology, this is not true. If an Orbo was an energy amplifier then, perhaps there would be some merit to the assertion, but it is not. For any particular configuration, there is a set energy gain and, unfortunately for those wanting to conquer the universe, there will be no death ray or planet eater to be seen anytime in the immediate future. So there!

If you have any suggestions for what should go into the completed summary, please let me know in the comments’ area.

Orbo - Does it Self-Sustain?

In the comments’ section of the last blog entry, a poster highlighted a misconception that I suspect may be shared with others. The language used by Steorn is unfortunate and, with so much else that surrounds the subject, it is easy to get the wrong end of the shillelagh. I thought that the point was so important that I would post here and clear it up as best I could.

In the Steorn public forum, the company CEO, Sean McCarthy, has said on a number of occasions that they are working toward a continuous motion device and, if I remember correctly, that they were 80%-90% of the way there. Taken with other comments regarding the stop/start nature of the current devices, it can easily be construed that after all this time, they have not been able to get the thing to self-sustain. While this interpretation is understandable if you have not been working on your next divorce by obsessing on the forums, it is in fact wrong.

The stop/start nature refers to a mechanism that self sustains, but whose movement may be analogous to a watch escarpment or a pendulum or even the piston of an internal combustion engine. The figure of 0.5W/cc refers to a self-sustaining device providing an excess energy that can be drawn as a load of up to that figure. When they said that they were 80%-90% on the road to a continuous motion device, they were referring to a superior design that has a smooth continuous action and that should be simpler to build, be more robust and, according to the man, should give a significant increase in power density.

Rather than being a cause for concern, if you assume as I do that they are telling the truth, this is tremendous news. As in any breakthrough technology, it is likely that early designs will be improved over time and what we are seeing is the tip of an energy revolution that can quite literally take us to the stars. (OK, so can our current technologies, but I couldn’t resist the gushing hyperbole in my current optimistic mood).

Hope this has been useful.

Steorn - Summary 2

The revolution started in Ireland.

In August 2006, Steorn, a small Dublin company, placed a one-page advert in The Economist. In effect, it said:

We have done the impossible. Prove us wrong.

That impossible thing was the production of free energy using a device that sounded very like a perpetual motion machine. If true, it would change the world and shake physics to its core. Frustrated at being ignored by the scientific establishment, Steorn admits that it was a publicity stunt designed to get scientists mad and make them want to prove them wrong. It worked. Thousands applied to test the technology and by December that year, they had 22 who were qualified and motivated to rip the claim apart. They are ‘the jury’. Driven entirely by its members, they would determine the how, where, with-whom, with-what, and how-long of the process. No matter the results, they are bound by contract to report to the public on a date yet to be determined – the so-called, Validation Day. Sean McCarthy, Steorn’s CEO, says that he has no doubt whatsoever what they will find.

Although there are parallels with both recent and historical claims that turned out to be bogus or mistaken, Steorn’s behaviour does not follow the pattern of scam artists gone by. Indeed, it is difficult to come up with a reasonable framework that would account for their actions if one were to start from the common sense position that they are lying or mistaken. Most observers now doubt any theory that has Steorn profiting from an illegal misrepresentation of their claims.

For a start, the company is privately funded and needs no more money to complete the process to its conclusion. It does not seek and will not accept offers of investment until after validation. It will sell nothing and will not enter into commercial agreements regarding future licensing deals. It has vowed that, once commercial operations begin, licensing will be inclusive – the company will not be bought out by a large corporation but will sell its technology to small and large concerns on an equal-access basis. Targeting a narrow market, McCarthy states that they have no wish to profit from those who cannot afford to pay for licences. To that end, the business model is designed to help the world benefit from their technology without raping it as they do so. Running alongside the profitable arm of selling licences to, for instance, the mobile technology sector, will be an ethos, mechanism and structure designed to spread the reality of free energy around the world with as few barriers to entry as possible. Individuals and groups working on humanitarian projects will pay Steorn nothing and a training database will be on-line ready to teach anyone with an interest exactly how to make it happen. A private developers’ club (SPDC), recruited from over 200 members of the global community, is working with Steorn to ensure that this database is ready and that when the doors open a small army of trained ‘seeds’ will help propagate the benefits to as many people in as short a time as possible. As I write this, a pilot project is under way somewhere in Africa to pump water to needy people. This is a symbol, in my opinion, of Steorn’s philosophy and a tiny example of the change that is set to cascade throughout the planet - all this as Steorn’s investors profit by selling their technology to a developed world desperate to free themselves from the tyranny of burning oil.

I hope they become fabulously wealthy.

To be continued…

Guerillas in our Midst

… it's utterly bogus… As all of this pseudo-content made its way online, the dance grew even more complex. At one point when the team thought the tension on the message boards was dissipating, it created … a character playing the role of a… the boards went wild...

…if you're on the side of the equation that believes [the hoax], then it's fascinating, and if you're on the side that gets that it's not real, then it's just great entertainment."...

The extract above is taken from an article in Fastcompany about the marketing firm, Campfire. Campfire is run by the people who turned a $22K unscripted movie with no-name actors into a quarter of a billion dollar take at the box-office. The movie is called The Blair Witch Project. Campfire has taken the lessons it learned and now sells its services to the likes of Sega, Audi and Pontiac. Please read the complete article, it is fascinating. Here are some more little gems; recognize anything?

… expands its audience by drawing in the gullible, the curious, and the merely bored--simultaneously... the audience needs enough backstory and a sufficient flow of detail to keep it guessing...

... To prime the palates of the conspiracy junkies…"what these guys are doing is strategically hiding parts of the story in an interesting and entertaining way, and getting people motivated to figure it out for themselves…

...The virus… catches on only if it forges a community where none existed. The infection has to start small and feed on fascination. "You can't start by thinking about what's going to appeal to the mainstream," says Monello. "You have to ask, 'What's this narrow target market going to embrace and absolutely make its own?'"
To create that kind of bond, Campfire immerses itself in the unspoken etiquettes and motivations of different target communities--Internet anthropology with a commercial twist....

… multiple layers of rabbit holes for people with varying levels of interest: the "divers," who participate minute-by-minute; the "dippers," who casually tune in on the message boards once a week; and the "skimmers," who accidentally read about it while surfing the likes of BoingBoing. Rather than cross its fingers and pray for the audience to pass the tale on, Campfire pushed people along by inventing a "fan" to track the saga on his own Web site, summarizing the story for casual observers. "You let the hard-core audience figure the story out and tell it to each other," Monello explains, "then archive it for people who are following along from the sidelines."...


You may ask yourself why I am posting this story if I am so convinced of Steorn's honesty. Good question. I want to demonstrate that I have not simply swallowed someone else's guff without researching and thinking deeply about the subject. So often, so-called believers are accused of having no idea of science, of unquestioning loyalty to a company that is using them as pawns, of a faith-based predisposition to being conned, of not paying attention, of not understanding the facts or how impossible all of this is, of having a poor grasp of the scientific method or of just being stupid. Some of these people, whose stance I can often otherwise relate to, seem to be stuck in a rut, unable to see that their mantras lose their power when they close their minds or denigrate others in trying to prove a point. Some are unable to recognise that, while scientific proof is the absolute and only end-game that matters, there are a myriad signals that could, if one chooses, be used to make an interim call. It is quite reasonable for someone to reserve their judgement, quite another to assume that this is what everyone should do.

I also want to encourage true vigilance and not simply have people buy into other's preconceptions of belief or scepticism. On either side of the fence, the ultimate proof is some way off and, until we get it, it is very easy to be wrong. What we read about in magazines is usually not the state of the art. Who knows what is happening now and where?

However, for me, the circumstantial evidence is so strong and the people that make up Steorn are so believable, that I intend to give them the benefit of the doubt while keeping an open mind (a truly open mind) to other possibilities. Thus, until I know otherwise, I will run with my conclusion that Steorn is going to change the world. If I had money, I'd bet on it.

The Great Stern Scam

There are a hundred good reasons to doubt Steorn’s claims. I’ve laid my stall out in an effort to explain why I jumped the fence into the believers’ side – at least in relation to the existence of their technology. A good friend of mine, worried about my sanity, gave me a book to read called, Selling Hitler (about a bogus set of Hitler diaries). I would recommend it to anyone. It shows how intelligent people can be duped and how ‘group think’ and wishful dreaming can cause the most ridiculous scams to gain credibility. In the case of the diaries, one of Germany’s most solid newspapers was caught out and lost millions over a period of more than a year. The diaries were obvious fakes but a number of silly errors during authentication let them pass muster. It was not lost on me that the name of this robust periodical was called, Stern. If you ever think that the Steorn phenomenon is just too big or too detailed to be a scam, then reading The Hitler Diaries will be an education indeed.

This blog is destined to be forward looking, but I think it is important that you make up your own mind with your eyes wide open and these early entries are designed to set the scene. Despite recognising the fallibility we all share with the rest of the human race, I still believe that Steorn is real. Tomorrow I will link to another incredible story that should sound a warning shot across all our bows. And yet, I continue to believe.

We need to be self-critical and guard against wishful thinking. Even so, I hope in pointing out the impossibility of Steorn’s claims, by drawing parallels with historical and grand manipulators, you will recognise the strength of my belief in Steorn. Despite it all, I am willing to risk my personal credibility and that of my writing (and therefore future) on the fact that Sean McCarthy and Steorn are telling the truth.

I can see my friend now, shaking his head in wonder.

Summary 1

As I write the summary document I promised you, I will post my interpretation of the details surrounding Steorn’s claims:

First, we have the broad claim (in my words):

Steorn has a machine that is able to drive a load continuously without external power and with no apparent degradation of its constituent parts. Within normal limits of mechanical reliability, the machine will run for the useful life of the product it powers, without any need for fuel. This means that from the day you buy a phone or a laptop you will never have to plug it in. From the day you sit in your new car to the day you scrap it, you will never have to fill it with fuel.

In particular:

• The machine outputs mechanical energy.
• It is built from readily available materials and works using a particular and very specific effect of magnetism.
• At present, the motion is driven by permanent magnets.
• It is a simple matter to attach the output to a generator to produce electricity.
• It is likely that, at some point in the future, where the desired output is electrical, the generator coils will be incorporated into the machine itself.
• They have made a small range of prototypes to check scalability (3, I think)
• From a device the size of your fingernail to one that could power a car, the technology has been shown to be linearly scalable.
• The first-generation implementation has an energy density of around 0.5 Watts/cc
• It is likely that this energy density will rise in subsequent generations of the technology.
• Steorn intends to target the mobile market as it is uniquely able to bring products to mass market quickly.
• The cost of manufacturing a module that fits in your laptop or phone will be commensurate with the cost of a modern battery pack you use now. It will not, however, need to be recharged.
• While the company makes money for its shareholders in the developed world, it has structured its business model to maximise the benefits to the planet and its people as a whole.
• After placing an advert in The Economist in August last year, they attracted thousands of applications to test their claims.
• They selected 22 scientists from several of the world's leading academic/scientific institutions to form ‘The Jury’
• The company is privately funded and has a healthy balance. They do not need and will not accept offers of investment. Neither will they sell anything until the jury report their findings.
• Steorn does not manufacture products, it merely licences its intellectual property.
• It has a manufacturing partner that will make products to Steorn’s specifications. This partner will make a significant number of demonstration machines that it intends to sell over the net after the jury validates their claims. This machine is simply another form of validation – one that thousands of people around the world will have sitting on their desks proving to us all that their claims are backed up by more than words.

I will continue to post extracts, as I draw up the summary.

Evil or Saviour

A few months ago, I stood with a pint of Guinness in my hand, talking to Sean McCarthy of Steorn. We were in Dublin and he looked at me bemused and said something to the effect, how can you believe us when you’ve seen no evidence? At various times and in so many words he has repeated that sentiment to others. I’ve never liked doing what I was told and I have no intention of starting now. It makes absolute sense to be sceptical of their claims, but there is also a lot of confusion out there stirred, in part, by Steorn's attack on science. With blood boiling , scientists and engineers talk about the scientific method and rage against the company's approach to launching their product. They see it as a perversion of the scientific method, I see it as good marketing. So, to clarify what I believe at this point in time:

Steorn has a machine that can produce free energy. It can be manufactured at reasonable cost. The energy density is useful and the technology has the power to change the world.

Notice that I say nothing about perpetual motion or the Laws of Thermodynamics or Conservation of Energy. The question of where the energy comes from could, when answered, change the world again, but for now these areas confuse the subject. When I say I believe Steorn, I’m not saying that I agree with their conjecture. They are not scientists, they are engineers. They say they have built a machine that could power a Porsche and fit in the engine compartment. You cannot mistake such a thing. There is no room for error. They have either done what they say or they are lying. It was this realisation that formed my frame of reference when trying to figure out the truth of it all.

Motivation

Whatever they’re up to it is costing them money. The expensive advert, the premises in Docklands Park, the staff, the admin, websites, software, marketing and security costs, all constitute serious and ongoing expenditure. SPDC and jury costs are significant and I estimate them to be around one million Euros. Over the past few years they have been funded by private investors to the tune of fourteen million Euros.

The risks they are taking are enormous. As an engineering firm, their credibility is on the line. I have met Sean’s wife, people all around the world know their names and some idiots have even posted his address on the net for all to see. You do not put you and your family on the line like that unless you are deranged, an uncaring and evil trickster, or you are telling the truth.

It’s reasonably safe to say that the motivation behind this is (at least, partially) money. Steorn has a responsibility to investors. When the story broke last year, many people argued that it had to be a scam. Most have moved away from that position now and, for those still unwilling to make the leap across the fence to the believers’ side, many wonder if it is a strange social experiment, a viral campaign for something all together different, or a weird art project where money is no object.

The reason I don’t go along with this is that McCarthy and the other Steorn employees would have to be incredible actors to pull this thing off in the way they have. Their public face is consistent and laudable. It’s not simply that they would have to be a collection of drama-trained engineers, but that they would also have to be incredibly evil to do what they are doing if they were not telling the truth.

Let’s put that statement in context. Steorn has publicly stated that it is building a water pump in Africa as part of a humanitarian drive to help those less fortunate than us. The company has set up the SPDC where over 250 members of the public are investing a lot of their time in the hope that they are working on a project with a strong moral imperative at its core. Many members believe that Steorn has the power, the will and the care to give water to the thirsty, irrigate deserts, desalinate seawater, feed the poor, stop global warming, turn oil nations into nations, shift trillions of dollars from destructive programs to constructive ones, level the playing field for third world countries so that they can jump directly to the 21^st century without having to pass through the 20^th to get there - and much, much more.

Sometime in July, the company will demo their technology to the public in London. It will run for ten days without external power and, they say, it will demonstrate a working machine based on their claims. Apart from members of the public being able to view the machine in person, millions of people around the world will be able to see it through a web-cam on the net.

These statements are so specific that there is no defence later in saying it w