The Gathering

I got back late last night from Dublin where Steorn presented their long-promised 'proof' to the world.

I am often asked which side of the fence I stand. Over the past 3 years, despite the failed London demo and numerous disappointments, I trusted my instincts, believing that the company had what they claimed, but Steorn's appointed jury slapped my face and hurled me into the sceptics' camp.

[I cannot wait to find out what happened behind the scenes but I'm willing to believe that both sides had their own agendas and problems and I would not be surprised if both were complicit. Perhaps - given that jury members are declared sceptics - they did not believe a word Sean said from the get-go and would analyse nothing until they saw some compelling evidence with their own eyes. I think that's reasonable and when it did not happen, the whole thing fell apart].

I have no inside knowledge on this but, no matter the truth of it, I put great faith in the scientific method and will not dismiss their negative verdict lightly. For this reason, I will only 'believe' when I have a device in my hand or multiple and repeatable replications are made by non-Steorn parties.

That said, I believe that Sean and Steorn are genuine. I believe that they are capable and that their work is informed and diligent. I believe that Saturday's demo did show over-unity and I believe that when Sean says it was not rigged that he was telling the truth.

There is now a great sense of openness between Steorn and SKDB members. Most questions asked are answered freely. They appear to have a clearer idea how to nurture independent replication from a bunch of far-flung builders and show a determination to use the SKDB to foster and support a thriving developers' community. I believe too, that the price of entry is trivial for anyone with a genuine interest in what is offered and I believe that all of this points to the fact that they have what they claim to have. I am still determined to hold on to caution and so I will not be truly convinced until the stain of the jury's negative verdict is expunged by an independent's spinning Orbo.

To anyone wondering if they should join the SKDB, I say that if you can afford the entry fee, it's worth every cent. The risk is petty and the possible rewards huge. Given its potential impact, Orbo technology is relatively simple to grasp. Harvesting small amounts of energy from each rotation is only possible with precise engineering and attention to fine tuning the various parameters involved. For that reason, building such a machine is neither trivial or beyond the ken of determined and talented amateurs. If this dream turns out to be true, developers will flood in once it becomes irrefutable. Before then, the field is open, IP is waiting to be designed and harvested, fame and fortune and a cleaner, better world, begging to be had.

To-date, I have spent thousands of dollars I do not have in following this enigma (flights, hotels and ancillary costs). I expect to make nothing, but the intellectual capital is priceless, the story a true wonder and the people - Steorn and SKDB members - a joy to know.

I realise that it sounds as though I believe, but the truth is, it's unimportant whether I do or not. My caution is by design, my hope for us all is unbounded.

Public Spin

The Steorn Orbo spins in public view at last. So, what does it prove? On the face of it, not a lot.

However, I don’t think that was the intention. This is a process, not a magic trick. I can tell you that anyone joining the SKDB will indeed get the knowledge needed to make this machine and others. The big question remains – is the thing what Steorn claims it to be? If so, the entry fee of 419 Euros will be seen as a pittance and if not it’s a 419 advance fee fraud.

To me, that’s the most telling thing about this demo. The company has put everything on the line. Never before have they been so specific about their discovery and directly linked it to a sales pitch for your money. It’s on record. It’s ballsy. It’s in your face.

Sean McCarthy:

“Orbo is an overunity technology. An overunity technology is simple – the concept is simple - that you can put a certain amount of energy into a device and take more energy out of it. It defies one of the most basic scientific principles.”

“What we’re offering is not just some new cool technology. It is a real opportunity, for us as a species and us as a society, to change everything.”

Notice the language. There is no obfuscation, no political get-out phrase. They are not saying that ‘we expect…’ or ‘in our opinion…” This is a public pitch selling specific knowledge with specific outcomes. Buy an entry ticket and we will show you how to build a machine that outputs more energy than you put in – a technology that could change us a species. If they do not deliver, you sue for your money back. In this sense, considering the stakes involved, the risk and the sum is negligible.

This demo has a long way to run. Paid membership of the SKDB is not happening until it finishes after January. I know that these people are smart. They have families. They are risking their lives. Soon they will be in jail or the world will sit up and take notice.

It's too early to call but that's fine because there's no need to.

Watch and learn.

Steorn Launch 2.0

OK… So now it begins. It starts and will continue for a while with mudslinging. Those in the ‘sensible’ camp will tell anyone who listens that Steorn – through Sean McCarthy – is lying. The dreamers, they say, are imbeciles. I say, wait and watch and learn. That’s what I intend to do. I will write another post when there’s something worthwhile saying within the NDA.

The Fence

It has been a while so I thought a short update would be appropriate. Things continue apace behind the scenes and I find myself inching towards the fence again. The real curtain is still in place and that is as it should be. Steorn has its agenda and its schedule and we are only privy to its rough outline. The big reveal will be this year as anyone who cares already knows. I am beginning to believe again that the event will be real and significant and now have a sense of why this journey is taking so long. Our want-it-now internet culture needs to be fed and it howls when ignored. In the real world - where people make things happen - hard work, trial and error, mistakes and failure, mark the road to successful revolutions and if Steorn’s claims turn out to be true, few would argue that this is a revolution to mark them all.

I remain cautious but my respect for Steorn is strengthening. These people are serious and they are talented. The obfuscation of the past is replaced by plain speaking and it is evident that the SPDC is a serious feature in the company’s plan. My renewed sceptical self will not allow conclusions to be jumped-upon, but it’s taking some discipline to force myself to heel.

Science Will Win

Following Sean's recent appearance in the public forum, I thought it might be useful to use that and what he said there to clarify my stance on where we are on this strange and fascinating journey. First of all, he informed us all that he had not shown the OS a self-sustaining device and so now it becomes obvious why I remain a sceptic.
When I talk about the marvellous resource behind the wire, I am primarily talking about the people there. I am constantly humbled by the generous spirit of those folks who have been patiently waiting and/or working away on trying to get to the bottom of this thing. Even hardened sceptics are willing to spend countless hours probing and building in order to prove their point in a constructive and cooperative fashion. While I have much sympathy with and understand the predominantly negative stance of those outside who think that this is all BS, I am much more impressed by those behind the wire who use their knowledge and skills to experiment, often taking Steorn to task even as they listen and build.
It is quite reasonable for people to think that Steorn is spouting rubbish and that their claims are bogus. Even their supporters at times found it impossible to support them. Following the London un-demo and the negative jury verdict, it would be a poor reflection on the intellectual state of our society if those giving their claims the benefit of the doubt did not take a giant leap backwards. I have more 'faith' in the scientists and engineers of this world to uncover the truth of things than any other body of people and I despair when members of that body are attacked as though they are all incapable of seeing beyond their own blinkered beliefs. I know it is a hard-won discipline that keeps them grounded even as they reach for the stars. While I do not have the resources, skills or knowledge to join them, it is to that type of person I am naturally inclined to side with in any argument regarding seemingly impossible and unproven claims.
The harsh truth is that if someone tells you they can turn sand into water but will not show you proof, they are probably lying or deluded. And the harsh truth is that after all these years, Steorn has not shown us what they said they would. For that reason, I remain a sceptic and side with any person who feels the same and expresses that sentiment in a level-headed fashion.
Much as all the above is true, as I see it, I am not a scientist. I do not have a reputation to protect and I find it impossible to ignore the human side of this story. I can categorically tell you that there are real engineers behind Steorn's walls. There are clever people there who know the difference between a self-sustaining device and a butter-dish. They understand that it is easy to make a measurement error in complicated, interacting systems and that that is more likely than perpetual motion. They are skilled and demonstratively inventive.
And they say – with no equivocation - that they have a self-sustaining machine and that they are about to change the world.
I was particularly struck by Sean's recent public comments and his apparent confidence. Yes, we have seen it before. We saw it before the demo and we saw it before the jury gave their verdict. The likely result of all of this is that whatever has been going on, we will not be walking hand in hand into a free-energy sunset. But despite all this, I give the possibility some air. True, Sean may be deluded or lying, but I find that hard to reconcile with the person I met or the hard-headed engineer he obviously is. I am aware that this means little against the enormity of the claim. It is more logical to attack the trusting part of my nature and caution it against false hope. But, I refuse to kill the human side that whispers hope against the odds. It costs me nothing.
I wait, fascinated and open to anything.
As I said in my last post. Christmas is coming. One way or the other, we will be able to celebrate. And either way, science wins.

Christmas is Coming

Funny old thing. I was about to post the following when Sean showed his face in the public forum. I'll post it as is but would recommend that anyone interested should pay the forum a visit if they've not already caught his comments.

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Hope continues to rise amidst the confusion of Steorn's unusual approach to launching their technology to the world. Without knowing the full story of their journey, emotion and logic become mismatched dancing partners, tripping feet and tuneless jerks stumbling from one half-assed conclusion to another. I will continue to guard against my own predilection to believe the characters involved in this play and from the sense that they owe me something for a stance they've neither sought nor encouraged. If it's all an illusion then we'll know soon enough and if not – well, what they're doing is hard. There's no rule book and no-one will care about the miss-steps along the way any more than Sean cares what people think of him on a personal level. All that matters is results. Nothing more.

With that in mind, I turn to thinking about what I can say within the bounds of the NDA that others might find useful or enlightening. One thing that comes to mind is the type of place that the SKDB has become. Top of the list is that it is a highly constructive environment – in more ways than one. The range of skills among its members is wide – from technical infants and wishful dreamers to hard-edged engineers and theorists and from the number-blind to the well-equipped visionary. A core of doers do and their supporters help make things happen. Real stuff. Not just the repetitive gripe and stab that often defines the posts outside. I am genuinely impressed by the community there and have no doubt that should Orbo prove its worth, its utility will be amplified and spread by the fabulous resource that Steorn continues to build behind the wire.

Soon enough, according to the public post, is this year. Merry Christmas?

Rising from the Ashes?

I've been putting off writing here because I had little to say that would add to the conversation. I put much faith in Steorn's commitment to the jury process. That and my belief that Sean and co are far from the idiots some make them out to be, kept me from walking away and giving in to the sceptic I'd become. Unlike many others making this journey, once I am certain that there is nothing to see, I will not stay for the entertainment value.
The jury result was another debacle; a disaster on the scale of the London un-demo. I felt let down and disappointed at my own gullibility. And yet, the niggling sense that the game was not over continued to bite. Was this just that gullibility gene making itself known?
When I started this journey, I thought I might contribute through my writing as I had little else to offer in the way of expertise or resources. My physics degree is sepia and I live an itinerant lifestyle. But, I concluded, I could write and I could serve a small part of this story. I could provide a window into the world of the SKDB for those on the outside and perhaps counter some of the unfounded negativity directed at Steorn.
The reality was that after my stance shifted to hopeful sceptic, I could no longer explore the brave new world I thought would be ours and the NDA limited the scope for reporting on anything else that I considered worthwhile.
Well, I am here still. My work and lifestyle demands that I ration my time ruthlessly. Being here now, is a message in itself. A sceptic, yes, and still cautious, but I can tell you with complete sincerity that it is not over. Steorn may yet surprise us all. Maybe.

The Jury

Given the recent announcement by the Steorn 'Jury':

http://stjury.ning.com

And Steorn's subsequent statement:

http://www.steorn.com/news/releases/?id=1151

I will write my thoughts on this in a few days. The knee-jerk reaction is to say that the jury was everything - the reason I gave any credence to Steorn's fantastical claims in the first place. That is what drew me in and allowed me to suspend disbelief. Since then, other events turned my position back to its normally sceptical state. Even so, there was always hope - there was always the jury.

I have voiced the knee-jerk reaction elsewhere - particularly inside the SPDC. I believe, however, it is all being said beyond this blog. I'll take a few days and come back again to try and put this in some kind of perspective from my point of view for anyone who cares.

The news is not surprising and yet I am still stunned. Strange.

The SKDB 300

When I started this blog, I hoped to counter the knee-jerk negativity surrounding Steorn with some independent and informed positivity. I have never been interested in the free-energy movement and, apart from a fleeting juvenile dally with a book called Chariot of the Gods, my base-line approach to unsubstantiated claims has always been scepticism. For reasons stated in earlier posts, I jumped on board the Steorn train until I could no longer suspend my disbelief. At that point, I became a born-again sceptic. As a member of the SKDB, I was under an NDA and could not write as freely as I would otherwise like and it seemed pointless to write about nothing. The following is a rare update to repay those interested enough to visit this
site.

A little context is useful. A graduate in physics, I have a little experience in engineering. However, for reasons that become apparent by visiting my main site, I am in no position to build spinny things and so I resign myself to 'watching' others' engineering efforts in the SKDB. As a sceptic, I will not fall from the fence until I see this thing fly for myself. The following is an honest appraisal of where I stand, told within the limitations of the NDA.

McCarthy and co are clever people. They are also experienced and enthusiastic engineers. They live for building cool stuff, are rigorous in their methodology and know what they are doing. Some of their grand scientific conclusions fly in my face, but they are not scientists and that does not preclude them having what they say they have. I also recognise that, if the practical outcome matches their claim, new science will likely follow. After reading countless hours of detailed engineering talk, I find it as impossible as ever to reconcile my scepticism with what my heart tells me. As a word of caution, I should say that I have visited Dublin twice and as at the London demo, meeting and drinking with Sean and co each time. I think of the Steorn guys akin to distant friends. Could this be colouring my judgement? I don't think so, but cannot rule it out.

The bottom line is this:

Would I recommend a suitably qualified engineer or organisation join the 300? Yes, I would. Keep an open mind. You will not be asked to ditch your disbelief at the door. That will depend on you, on what you see and what you build yourself. If I had the resources, the time and the experience, I would love to be in your shoes. You have little to lose but time and everything to gain if this goes the way many (including me) hope it does. The stakes are so high, that the slimmest chance of success has to be worth the free ticket on offer.

Please note, that I am once more heading off to Croatia for an extended writing retreat. Forgive me in advance if I don't answer some question you post. I do not have constant Net access out there. Anyway, there is little that is worth saying that I am able to say in a public forum and so you are unlikely to miss anything. I will post again, only when I think I have something worth writing about.

Cheers for now.

Paul

Update

I've noticed an increase of interest in this blog in the past few days and feel it's only fair to write an update. I'll do so soon.

Writing Retreat

Hi all. Over the next few months I have the good fortune to be able to write from a beautiful and remote location on a Croatian Island. Given the paucity of events surrounding Steorn, I'm not sure it will make any real difference to the frequency (ie low frequency) of my posts. I will of course still keep up to date in whatever fashion I can and will certainly log into the SPDC as often as I can get access.

To all my friends in the SPDC and beyond, thanks for reading and I look forward to having something worth saying - someday -about this strange mystery.

Come on Sean... how difficult can changing the world be?

Shifting Sands

You may have noticed a somewhat schizophrenic tone to my last post. Such an observation is reasonable and fairly reflects my position with regards to Steorn. While the lack of anything tangible from them is extremely frustrating, I cannot help wondering if they are not onto something important. I do not buy the notion that a commercial company must conform to the rules of scientific disclosure no matter how much I wish they would.

As stated in that post, I had intended to use this entry to detail the reasoning behind my stance but there is something more interesting happening on the public forum and it is worth pausing to look at it if you have not done so already.

An idea, first proposed by a member going by the handle ‘overconfident’, has finally taken shape through a collaborating effort with a skilled builder (going by the handle ‘alsetalokin’). The narrative is fascinating and is detailed in a single thread that spans the months from October 2007 to the present time. It is too early to tell what is going on here but it is certainly worth a look. My immediate reaction is that the open nature of the project will allow anyone with the tools and know-how to replicate the device. This should help nail it down and explain any problem with the demo if one exists. Problem or not, we will all benefit from the lessons learned.

Caution prevails, but that does not make the demo any less interesting. No matter the final significance (or otherwise) of the machine, its open nature is a great example of how the net will eventually allow us to amplify our efforts to produce great things.


The thread is here

And the device video here

The Dream of Steorn

Looking back on the past year, I find myself asking the question:

Have I used my time wisely in supporting Steorn?

As it stands, I have to conclude that the answer is, ‘No’.

My belief in the company and its claims was based on my belief in the people involved and the concrete nature of their promises. The bold, brash announcements backed by hard currency seemed to defy common sense. Talk of breaking the laws of physics – in particular the principle of CoE – jarred with what I ‘knew’ to be true. I reconciled this by publicly stating that they were likely wrong on this point (or playing for controversy) even if they had the machines they claimed to have. However, as engineers, they could not mistake building a physical device that does not need fuel and was yet capable of producing 0.5W per cc indefinitely. They had to be lying or they had to have what they said they had.

Intrigued, I broke a holiday and flew from Spain to Dublin to meet these crazy people face to face. Sean Mc was disarming and I could easily see how anyone could be conned by such Irish charm. If the affable CEO had been a lone wolf, my defences would have remained intact. But he wasn’t. Surrounded by so many Steorn employees and talking to some of the key players, I was struck by the relaxed atmosphere and a sense that these people were convinced they were about to change the world. I was also energized by the enthusiastic drive to use the ‘Steorn Effect’ for humanitarian purposes and not simply as a lever to gain global supremacy. Sure, they would make money but, more importantly, they would bring light and heat and water and refrigeration and transport and all the benefits of our modern world to those in need – without charging them for a licence. Further, by seeding the planet with an inexhaustible source of green power, the Steorn crew would save the human race from itself.

After the Dublin party, I could not reconcile the difference between the people I met and the despicable liars they would have to be, if all of this was smoke and mirrors. Lying aside, there was also the question of intelligence. The claims were so bold, so precise and so (eventually) verifiable that it appeared extremely unlikely they would set themselves up for such an inevitable public fall. Remember, we are not talking about shadowy Internet figures, these are real people, easily traced and with lives and responsibilities that extend beyond Steorn.

Sixteen months on from the Economist advert, little of substance has emerged to move this thing forward. If I had known this at the time, I would not have gone to Dublin, not have spent a thousand hours, reading, writing, thinking and breathing the dream that led to this blog. I would not have returned from Croatia to London for the non-demo and I would not have made Steorn an integral part of my current novel.

It would be reasonable for anyone to conclude from the above that I have lost all hope but this is not true. I merely state that I would not have suspended my disbelief at the time if my crystal ball had been working. If you were among those who predicted that Steorn would not show anything at the demo but would instead shift the goal posts, fudge and continue to push back promises until they faded away, to-date it looks like you hit the mark and I missed.

I will try to pull together an entry that summarizes the reason I still hold on to the dream (or fantasy) of a future Steorn Miracle. The hope is nowhere near as strong as it was, but it is still there and the stakes are still huge. Steorn has not gone away and one way or another, there is more to this story than meets the eye.

2007 And All That

With the year closing fast, many of you have asked for a summary of where I think we are with the Steorn story. I will do this after I return from a remote break with friends in a few days time. Until then, I just wanted to wish all of you - no matter what side of the fence you are on - health, happiness and peace for you, your family and friends in 2008 and beyond.

Paul

Steorn - A Non-Update

A number of readers have asked for an update even if it is just to say that there is little of note happening to talk about. It will come as no surprise to hear that my silence reflects the lack of real information needed to shift my position one way or another. To many, convinced that the Steorn phenomenon is dying, the lack of noise is proof that it was all vapour in the first place. For me, like most things Steorn, it can be read in many ways. After the non-demo, Sean and Co decided to change how they interacted with the public. The showmanship is muted, serious work is being done behind the scenes. Someday we will all be amazed when they pull back the curtain. Maybe.

Most of us only see the results of a new technology or scientific progress after it makes the headlines. In the past, this has been when an actual product hits the streets or peer review reports that there is a real reason to get excited. For good or ill, we have been party to the messy underbelly of trial and error. Anyone who has tried to push the boundaries of any field will recognise the confusion and mistakes for what they are. The net, and our insatiable appetite for sensation, have brought us a little too close to the forge and sparks are flying. Our expectations are unrealistic - these things take time.

While I am no longer convinced that Steorn has found energy's Holy Grail, I still hope. Patience is restored. The company may be folding as I write this, but I doubt it. They might be covering their tracks, but they could equally be doing what they say they are doing - what they should have done all along. We are all culpable in stirring the hype; and I have played my part in helping it along the way. I will no longer do this. If I get excited in the future about something Steorn has revealed in the SPDC, it will be for good reason. Until then, I remain circumspect about the whole affair.

As an aside, I believe in Science. Its structure and its practitioners have changed our lives – mostly for the good. That does not mean, however, that there is no room for improvement. No matter the outcome of this drama, I think we are witnessing something extremely important. The power of the net to unite people for and against a particular idea or claim is likely to accelerate the pace of change. The evolution of memes has a new engine and our world view will alter as power shifts away from the centralised control of the establishment into the hands of the many – or at least the educated subset. We are likely seeing the downside of this at the moment, but in the end I believe the gravy will be rich. Yes, there will be more froth as fashion and hype feed from gullible minds, but when tangible results bubble to the top, no one will be able to deny them. When they do, we will not care where they came from. The collective intelligence will be driven by a few stars that could, in effect, become the new filters that replace the slow moving juggernaut guarding the temples of accepted knowledge. The difference will be that these stars will no longer be immovable, propped up by vested interests. I do not believe there is a global conspiracy to keep new ideas out of sight, but I do think that, when a few individuals hold so much power, their certainty, the notion of infallibility, the investment of time, energy and intellect can clog the filter and halt progress. Will the Steorn outcome shore up their position or point to the dynamic power of the new order? I don't know, but for me, the answer is at least as important as the idea of free energy. For this reason and many others, I watch and wait.

Steorn - Hope

I am outside my tent in a remote part of the Scottish Highlands. Powering my UPC with a solar panel in the pouring rain is not easy, but I thank the scientists and engineers, the business people and financiers who have made such a miracle even possible. My writing desk is anywhere in the world and I'm surrounded by beauty instead of four grey walls.

The weather has been so poor that I've rationed my power and therefore my time on the net. However, catching up with what's going on in the SPDC has, for the first time since the failed demo, put me back in an optimistic frame. I can't, for obvious reasons, say what, but interesting things are happening in there.

With my new pragmatic and sceptical head on, I will not go so far as to jump the fence again although I am tempted to do so. Steorn's silence may frustrate and infuriate some people but they are dancing to their own tune and I like the sound of it.

Perhaps, one day yet, we can all use an Orbo where the sun don't shine and Steorn might - just might - bring the planet what they promised. If that happens, I will regain something I wondered that I might have lost: faith in my ability to judge people, to recognise sincerity and to act on it no matter the odds.

A New Demo?

Well, so far the good words have produced nothing of significance from Steorn. This might mean no more than they are preparing for a ‘reveal’ on their own terms, but it could equally mean that it’s all bollocks. The spectrum goes all the way from a fully working Orbo to the pack of cards tumbling in the background as investors take note of the voices in their heads and start pulling the plug.

Given this, it is quite remarkable that I have any hope left. I do, despite the bizarre antics of this quite bizarre company - Steorn. It is against all common sense. Consequently I have to question myself and wonder at the human condition that refuses to let go of hard-won preconceptions in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.

Small threads of comfort lie in one piece of indirect evidence that there is more to this than the crap it otherwise appears to be. I cling to this and hope that Sean turns out to be more than the charismatic shyster many assume him to be. If he is on the level then he will be laughing at all our words. I hope he is. Are we about to see a new demo? I have no idea.

Steorn - The Never Ending Story

Two weeks on from the un-demo, nothing much has changed. In one way, my belief in Steorn has remained. There are real things going on behind the scenes that continue to fire the flame of hope, there is incredible circumstantial evidence that this is not the delusion of one charismatic individual. However, the passion and time I have put into this project (I have just spent five months writing a first draft of a SF novel that included a successful Steorn in shaping the landscape of my future world) now gives way to a distant objectivity that requires more than confidence in my own ability to judge people.

As a member of the SPDC, I see many clever and passionate people, in Steorn and outside of the company, working hard to change the world in the understanding that we are not being duped. For obvious reasons I cannot talk about details, but perhaps I can use this blog to convey my confidence level from time to time. While I make no promises regarding my gullibility, I can hope at least to reflect my honest assessment of what is going on without the shade of rose-tinted glasses distorting my view.

Until my confidence in my ability to judge others is restored, I will only update this blog occasionally and when I have some reason to shift my position. If I can tell you why I have shifted then I will, otherwise I will simply report the fact.

Rather than checking here regularly, it may be worth your while subscribing to the newsletter so that when I do post on Steorn, you will receive it automatically.

At the moment, confidence is low. It could change so easily and a part of me expects it to do just that. If it does, it will be my head speaking, not my heart.

Time Out

I almost stayed in London for another couple of days. The Steorn affair has made cryptic detectives of all of us and I was guilty of almost convincing myself that the Sunday Kinetica drinks was a front for an unveiling of Orbo. Instead I'm sitting under a tree in Cambridge. Awesome.

Please forgive my indulgence. Will answer comments soon.

The Steorn Conspiracy

There is little comfort in having dreams shattered. I still hope that my positive view of Steorn will be rescued from the swamp but, for now, I will take whatever crumbs the current situation offers. Up until now, as a natural sceptic standing on the wrong side of the fence, I had few opportunities to compete in the conspiracy game. This has now changed and I can join in the fun.

Last week in London, as I stood looking around the Kinetica stage, Sean performing to the audience, small personal cameras recording the event, I wondered at the setting. At first glance it looked perfect. Professional cameras connected to the net, all pointing to the shamed, immobile, plastic in the centre. An idle thought struck me: what if they were not filming the ‘device’ but the people lured to the stage by the enigmatic pose it struck? This of course, is silly. It would imply that the failure was staged, that Sean’s mea culpa was an act, and that we were all being manipulated. I thought then of the documentary crew. Apparently they were absent. What? Over three years in the making and the crew programme a vacation in the middle of the demo? As far as I am aware, the cameras were theirs, and I think too, that they filmed ‘the failure’. It is astounding to think that after all this time they would shrug their shoulders, lend Sean the cameras and take a hike – unless the cameras were still filming for the documentary and not for the non-existing demo.

Do I think the above is true? I have no idea. Given that there is nothing booked at Kinetica for the next few weeks, I believe anything is possible in this very strange game we are all playing.

Edit to add: Kinetica is apparently closing down and anyone who is interested can join them for drinks on Sunday afternoon. Mmmm...

Steorn's Cryptic Reality

If you’ve followed this blog from the start (all that time ago - lol) my shift in position is obvious. I wanted to get away from the circular arguments relating to Steorn’s technology and steer a more positive and optimistic course into the future. While this is still what I want to do, I would be sticking my head in the sand if I ignored the events of the past week on my ability to suspend disbelief. I am willing to do so again but the barrier is higher. Thus, I will try to look at things dispassionately. I cannot give confidential details of what goes on inside the SPDC but, where I can, I hope my confidence, or otherwise, will be reflected here and give you an indication of how likely this thing is to be a terrible joke played upon a needy world. That can only happen if I am even handed and demonstrate my honesty to you. With so many unknowns, I expect my speculations to be wrong as often as right, but they will always be sincere and when I know I’m wrong, I’ll say so.

To set this in context, the following is a snapshot of my confidence levels through the Steorn belief-landscape:

August 2006 – Economist Ad – Amused Cynicism

September – After a few weeks on the forum – Sceptic

October – Fraud argument sounds weak – Puzzled Sceptic

December – Post-Crank’s visit and the Dublin party, meeting the Steorn folks – I now believe they are telling the truth.

Note that, this is not too far from Dr Mike’s position. We both believed that Sean believes. I chose to go along with him despite understanding the odds. Dr Mike did not. I fully appreciate that Dr Mike’s stance is the safest bet.

On joining the SPDC, there was a single revelation that reinforced my belief that the technology was real (but not the scientific conclusions). That has not changed, but since the failed demo, it is no longer enough. It is not that I don’t trust Sean; I no longer trust my own ability to read him.

I am now sceptical again, but it would take so little and be extremely easy for Steorn to push the fence over. They were going to show the Orbo to the world. There is now no need for the secrecy that shrouded every move they made in the past. They cannot reveal everything until they are ready, but all they need to do is to follow through on their word and be less cryptic (a euphemism for lying?). It has only been a week since the disastrous failure and, after ten months, I can wait a little longer. Steorn cannot afford to compound its error (if that’s what it was) by rushing some half-baked Blair-like response into the public arena, but the simplicity of the solution stares us all in the face and I see no reason for another long-drawn promise that will likely die from lack of interest as people, including me, drift away.

I look forward to turning this blog back on its original course. I look forward to expressing my admiration for the route they have pioneered, their humanitarian stance, and their determination to change the world. I look forward to supporting the most important project of the century, but only if it exists beyond the collective imagination of everyone involved.

McCarthy Mad, Say Mad Scientists

After reading Dr Mike’s interim report, one thing strikes me. In saying that Sean is deluded, he demonstrates a point that most people share upon meeting the man. No, not that Sean is mad, but that Dr Mike is convinced that he is sincere, and that he absolutely believes he has what he says he has. Sir Eric Ash, in his piece for the BBC does the same thing, calling the Steorn CEO genial but suffering from "prolonged self deception."

This is the flipside to the coin seen by many so-called believers who have met him too. Dr Mike and Professor Ash know for a fact that Sean cannot have what he says he has. This is the rock-solid foundation which informs everything they see. However, since they believe him absolutely, the only way they can resolve the dichotomy is to pronounce McCarthy insane. The alternative would be to admit that they were taken in by him and we can't have that. For clear and objective thinkers, I find this conclusion revealing. In pronouncing their diagnosis they also imply that the other people involved are mad or weak in following such a deluded individual without evidence. While this may seem reasonable when tagged to outsiders like me, it is a stretch to do so for Steorn employees, partners and investors. If it turns out to be true that his charm has infected everyone around him with the same self-delusion, then surely the failed demo will force them all to ask serious and hard questions of both themselves and ‘The Master’. Given this, the whole pack will crumble within days and no amount of charm will hold the delusion in place for long.

If that doesn’t happen fast, then sorry guys; you may be clever, but you’ve got it wrong.

Why did it fail?

Apart from the obvious possibility that the Orbo did not exist in the first place, this is my best shot at clearing some of the fog around the London demo’s failure. It is nothing more than my best guess:

Sean claims that the device is simple to build. This confidence led him to inject hurdles that added to the risk of failure. These include:

• Using polycarbonate materials to afford transparency
• Fitting simple ceramic watch bearings to keep opaque elements small
• Concentrating on the artful look over function and reliability
• Settling for a low-torque configuration
• Placing the exhibit in a greenhouse with hot lights focused on it
• Using an untested system (ie poly-built – not the configuration itself)
• Seat-of-the-pants flying
• Insufficient time to recover from inevitable problems
• No fall-back plan

I am sure there are others, but it is easy to see that the above list fits with Sean’s ‘mea culpa’. I do not write this to embarrass Sean further. He has fallen on his sword and apportioning blame is Steorn’s business not mine. I am simply trying to bring clarity to a confused situation with what little information we have. One guess is that, since polycarbonate has a high degree of expansivity, it may have done so under the lights and put excessive and unbalanced pressure on the bearings. (I am told by friends that these type of bearings do not take such treatment well). With such a low-torque system, it would not take a large degradation in performance to kill the rotation.

To conclude, as some people have, that the Orbo is real but fragile, is a leap too far for me. I would find it easier to believe that the device did not exist in the first place and I am not ready to jump to that conclusion either.

Up until now, I figured that the delays and obfuscation were down to giving Steorn time to squeeze the last patent improvements into the system. This conforms to the observation that the continuous motion technology is just off the drawing board. On Friday, I asked Sean if they were now fully patent-protected. He was unequivocal in his answer – yes. Taken together with the demo train-wreck and his display of sincerity regarding a change of approach, I can only pray that we will not have to wait a year for the jury to report. That may have made some sort of sense last month, but the landscape has changed and it no longer does.

Steorn, The Undemo

My confidence has been shaken.

Over the past ten months, I have followed and, for the most part, supported Steorn in their adventure. In the full knowledge that their claims are ‘impossible’ I suspended disbelief on the strength of (for me) compelling circumstantial evidence. This stance was temporary as I was confident that, with patience, proper evidence would come our way. The demo was merely a start, but an important one, that would surely confound the sceptics. Instead, it is I, and many other ‘believers’, who have been confounded.

I have not posted for the past few days because I wanted to get to the other side of my disappointment before doing so. So much time, energy, emotion and money has been invested by so many people that it is easy to run away at the mouth (or fingers) and say things you later regret. With time to think and emotions calmed, I’m ready to re-engage and to explore what light, if any, recent events shine on the truth or fiction of the Steorn Story. At times I have convinced myself that Sean has been lying or deluded and at other times that this has all been a hideous and unfortunate mistake by otherwise smart, good people.

I like what Steorn is saying just now. The words are just words, but I will wait to see if they form into actions. I met a number of employees as well as Sean at various times over the past few days in London. They are devastated by what has happened and it is hard to believe that they would have set themselves up for such a fall deliberately. This is what you would have to believe if you conclude that they are operating a scam or hoax (a psychological illness notwithstanding). In making everything transparent (so to speak) they set the highest hurdle to jump. Why not just fake it? It would be running now. Remember, they did not need to do the demo. It was not in the plan. They added that element recently and while the no-show is consistent with them not having what they say, it is also consistent with an embarrassing error. If it turns out to be anything but the latter, I will walk away. If I see real, concrete evidence (to my satisfaction, not someone else’s) then this blog will champion their efforts to change the world.

My confidence has been shaken, I am suspicious, but I have not yet given up hope.

Stressed-Out Steorn

For what it’s worth, here are my thoughts on the current state of Steorn’s demo.

Anyone who has been an engineer, scientist, programmer, technician, or a practitioner of any art that involves prototyping, will understand what these guys are going through right now. It is easy to say now what they should have done to prepare for such an important event but it would be churlish and unproductive to do so.

We may be disappointed but that is nothing to the Steorn crew’s high-profile stress-out. I will wait until something happens that is worth commenting on before I do so. I keep my fingers crossed that that will be tomorrow when I see the working Orbo doing its thing in Kinetica. Until then, I simply wish them luck.

Will IT? Won't IT?

I will reserve my comments until we see what happens today. We all know that things can go wrong in many ways but if in the end they deliver, all will be forgotten. If the problem really is one of a simple mechanical nature then Steorn must be in an uncomfortable place now. Tempted as I am, I won't add to that discomfort.

London Demo

The first media report is out in the Belfast Telegraph regarding the London Demo.

Not too impressive but then, what can they say? That's the problem with wanting to be first - no information to go on.

Over the next 10 days I will make a number of visits to the demo and keep you informed as I get more information.

This could be the start of a new journey for us all - will media attention reflect this or will they be too busy chasing Ms Hilton? I'm sure they can do both. There are a lot of serious journalists out
there who fully understand the implications. If the demo lives up to the bill then the media will run with it, I'm sure. We're about to find out either way.

Steorn - The Summary

My last post was a little effusive. I make no apology for that. I would however point out something that the less forgiving among you may have missed. If you do not agree with my reasons for saying that Steorn could not have made a mistake with regard to the functionality of their machine, then you are unlikely to agree with the following. Nevertheless, I do:

If these people are truthful then everything I wrote in the last entry is reasonable and those involved deserve the accolades that will surely come their way. If not, and I have been duped, then it is by a group of individuals who have no moral compass; who are willing to use false charity and the plight of billions of disadvantaged people to sell whatever it is they are trying to sell. We can tie ourselves up in knots all we like, but I find that keeping this point in focus along with my judgement from meeting them (until genuine proof comes our way) cuts through the clutter and allows me to say with confidence the things I say.

The summary document I promised is now available and linked at the right of the main page. It is written with the newcomer in mind so, if you know of anyone who wants to be brought up to speed, please direct them there. Alternatively, you may distribute the unaltered document or quote from it freely, with appropriate attributes given. If you have any comments or suggestions about improving it, I would welcome them. I hope it's useful.

Steorn - The Movie

There is something about Steorn’s story that is almost as incredible as the harnessing of free energy itself. As the argument rages around the globe, there is a curious omission in the debate. If this were a movie – and someday it probably will be – Steorn, the company, would be an extraordinary character. Played by Jim Carey cloned with Colin Farrell, it is a wild-child maniac, picking fights, enacting crazy stunts, biting the heels of King Kong –all before ending the reel by saving the universe.

If ever there was a candidate to feed the conspiracy theorists, this is it. What is the likelihood of Fire 2.0 being discovered by a bunch of renegade engineers-come-showmen-come-saviours-come-businessmen? Depending on what day it is, your personal perspective, or what mood the company is in, it can come across as ingenious, frustrating, patient, diligent, silly, caring, daring or bloody reckless.

The truth is that they are extraordinary because they are human. They are ordinary because they are without affectation. I’ve often wondered what I would have done if I’d discovered such a technology. I would probably have followed their journey fairly closely in the first couple of years, working quietly, raising funds, patenting what I could to prepare for launch. I wonder though, if the secrecy, the responsibility, the lure of gold, the excitement, the tension and worry would not leave its mark after almost four years and so close, now, to the goal. Meeting the Steorn crew, one cannot avoid being struck by their affable personalities. They are, at turns, relaxed, funny, serious, focused, and sociable. I get the impression that they would rather wind the day down with a pint of Guinness than a bucket of Champagne. Where many of us might dream of being the next Bill Gates, McCarthy & Co is scheming to change the world.

Everything they do highlights the marriage of sound business sense with responsible, world citizens.

Over the past year they have shepherded a minor media frenzy, recruited a jury of scientists to test the impossible, improved their tech so that they are close to Fire 2.01, shaved their heads for charity, held a forum party for a bunch of strangers from around the world, set up the SPDC, moved on the Africa project, smiled at vicious verbal and written attacks, organised a demo of a tech destined to change the planet and finessed their business plans to nurture humanitarian projects even as they prepare to take on the global giants of the energy business. And still they had time for fun. Songs have been composed and sung, silly videos have been made and drinks have been downed in one. Now that is pretty damned cool. (I made the bit up about the drink because the sentence worked better, but it might be true).

I will return to this subject sometime in the future. For now, I would like to plant a seed. In everything that follows - in the coming months - as realisation dawns to the truth of Steorn’s claims, we should recognise how lucky we are that it was discovered in a tiny corner of Dublin and not in my basement. Sure they’ll make money; but they’ll do much, much more. They are going to reshape the world and nothing is going to get in their way.

Lights! Camera! Action!

A Free Lunch From Steorn

Something bothered me about Steorn’s claims early in my research. It is one thing to say that you can make magnets do work and quite another to say that they will keep doing so without degradation for the life of the machine. If the permanent magnets degraded over time or simply demagnetised, then recharging them periodically would constitute fuel and the whole dream comes tumbling down.

I couldn’t understand how Steorn could make this claim. True, they’ve been playing around with this tech for a few years now, but as far as I know, they have not simply set one going and let it run for a year or two. Rather, they have been hunting for new and better ways to do the same thing, testing and retesting exhaustively, starting it off, measuring performances, torques and speed before stopping it, tweaking some aspect of the design and then running the tests again. Exhaustive, time-consuming and the stuff of good engineering design. But, if that’s true, how can they know that the magnets don’t demagnetise?

The answer lies in something Sean said in the Steorn public forum in November last year. Posting to the forum, he said that if a permanent magnet, initially magnetised to 80% of its capacity, was used in the device, then after some time in operation it would have increased its strength to 100%.

I’m not sure if the 100% figure refers to saturation or retentivity – probably the latter. Either way, it is an astonishing statement. Now we can understand their confidence. While nothing will beat a long field trial to prove the point, the knowledge that the magnetisation is topped up as it runs, is the key to the magic that is about to change our world. Where is the energy coming from? Why does a permanent magnet do that? These are questions that will excite scientists working on the subject in the coming years. Meanwhile the rest of us can hop on the ride happy in the knowledge that Steorn has confounded one more law:

There really is such a thing as a free lunch.